Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timePanetolikos 1:3 PAOK
PAOK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Panetolikos's attack: 0.12 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.91). PAOK produced 2.08 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.82).
Goals
- 33' Taha Abdi Ali PAOK · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
- 39' Cherif Ndiaye PAOK · 0.38 xG chance 0–2
- 51' Diego Esteban Panetolikos · 0.08 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Shola Shoretire PAOK · 0.64 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- Panetolikos
- 27%
- Draw
- 33%
- PAOK
- 40% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Panetolikos produced 0.91 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 2
- 15
- On target
- 1
- 5
- Inside the box
- 2
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 0.03
- 1.35
- Set-piece xG
- 0.08
- 0.73
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.12 for Panetolikos.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
17 shots · 2.19 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Panetolikos
- PAOK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.31 xG created 1.52 xGA
- D 1.27 created, 1.40 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
- L 2.23 created, 1.86 conceded against Asteras Aktor
- W 0.50 created, 1.19 conceded against Asteras Aktor
- W 2.46 created, 1.02 conceded against PS Kalamata
- W 1.27 created, 0.69 conceded against APO Levadiakos
- L 0.11 created, 2.97 conceded against Panathinaikos
1.86 xG created 1.42 xGA
- D 1.35 created, 1.02 conceded against AEK Athens
- D 2.63 created, 1.61 conceded against Panathinaikos
- W 2.15 created, 0.57 conceded against APO Levadiakos
- W 1.61 created, 1.33 conceded against Atromitos Athens
- L 1.02 created, 2.72 conceded against Panathinaikos
- W 2.39 created, 1.24 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panetolikos to win | 5.50 | +49.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.00 | +31.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +15.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.75 | +8.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panetolikos | 27.2% | 17.3% | +9.9 pp | 3.67 |
| Draw | 32.9% | 23.8% | +9.1 pp | 3.04 |
| PAOK | 39.8% | 58.9% | −19.1 pp | 2.51 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 52.0% | +0.1 pp | 1.92 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.9% | 48.0% | −0.1 pp | 2.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 75.0% | −3.9 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 25.0% | +3.9 pp | 3.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 51.3% | −10.5 pp | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 48.7% | +10.5 pp | 1.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Panetolikos sample
- 20 matches
- PAOK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.