Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 18:00
11d 16h to kick-offBaşakşehir FK – Gaziantep FK
Model updated 7 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Başakşehir FK
- 48%
- Draw
- 30%
- Gaziantep FK
- 22%
| Başakşehir FK | Draw | Gaziantep FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.08 | 3.37 | 4.48 |
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Başakşehir FK
48% Başakşehir FK to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 11th
- Başakşehir FK attack v Gaziantep FK defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 12th
- Başakşehir FK defence v Gaziantep FK attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.25 vs -0.36
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 1.04
- Başakşehir FK v Gaziantep FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Başakşehir FK | Gaziantep FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.63 · 7th | 1.11 · 14th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 15th | (better) 1.47 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.25 · 11th | -0.36 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.40 · 8th | 1.11 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.25 | -0.36 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Başakşehir FK clean sheet
- 33%
- Başakşehir FK 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:0
- 9.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Başakşehir FK sample
- 20 matches
- Gaziantep FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Başakşehir FK
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Gaziantep FK
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.