Monday, 07/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeGöztepe 2:4 Gaziantep FK
Göztepe were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. Gaziantep FK won 4–2. The biggest difference was Göztepe's attack: 3.26 xG against 1.61 projected (+1.65). Gaziantep FK produced 1.88 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.83).
Goals
- 5' Halil Dervişoğlu Gaziantep FK · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
- 10' Myenty Abena Gaziantep FK · 0.11 xG chance 0–2
- 34' Kacper Kozłowski Gaziantep FK · 0.06 xG chance 0–3
- 45' Kacper Kozłowski Gaziantep FK · 0.12 xG chance 0–4
- 51' Juan Santos da Silva Göztepe · 0.66 xG chance 1–4
- 90' Juan Santos da Silva (pen.) Göztepe · 0.82 xG chance 2–4
The model against the result
- Göztepe
- 49%
- Draw
- 29%
- Gaziantep FK
- 22% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Göztepe produced 1.65 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 16
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.17
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.23
- 1.09
- Set-piece xG
- 0.22
- 0.13
- Penalties
- 2
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.43 for Göztepe and 1.23 for Gaziantep FK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 4.31 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Göztepe
- Gaziantep FK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.68 xG created 1.82 xGA
- D 1.54 created, 0.79 conceded against Trabzonspor
- W 2.08 created, 0.77 conceded against Gaziantep FK
- L 2.20 created, 2.11 conceded against Samsunspor
- D 1.71 created, 2.80 conceded against Samsunspor
- L 1.92 created, 1.56 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
- L 0.63 created, 2.87 conceded against Galatasaray
1.05 xG created 1.44 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +1.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +1.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Göztepe | 49.1% | 48.6% | +0.5 pp | 2.04 |
| Draw | 29.0% | 26.4% | +2.6 pp | 3.45 |
| Gaziantep FK | 21.9% | 25.0% | −3.1 pp | 4.56 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 55.7% | +2.2 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.1% | 44.3% | −2.2 pp | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | 73.1% | +5.5 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.3% | 26.9% | −5.5 pp | 4.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 50.0% | +1.2 pp | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 50.0% | −1.2 pp | 2.05 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Göztepe sample
- 20 matches
- Gaziantep FK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.