Monday, 26/10/2026 at 17:00
22d 16h to kick-offÇaykur Rizespor – Trabzonspor
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Çaykur Rizespor
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- Trabzonspor
- 31%
| Çaykur Rizespor | Draw | Trabzonspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.59 | 3.25 | 3.27 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Çaykur Rizespor
39% Çaykur Rizespor to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 5th
- Çaykur Rizespor attack v Trabzonspor defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 7th
- Çaykur Rizespor defence v Trabzonspor attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.12 vs +0.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.40 – 1.24
- Çaykur Rizespor v Trabzonspor
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Çaykur Rizespor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.43 · 8th | (better) 1.71 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.31 · 8th | 1.56 · joint 12th |
| xGD / match | +0.12 · 6th | (better) +0.16 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.54 · 5th | 1.45 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.12 | (better) +0.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Çaykur Rizespor clean sheet
- 26%
- Çaykur Rizespor 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.6%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Çaykur Rizespor sample
- 20 matches
- Trabzonspor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Çaykur Rizespor
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Trabzonspor
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.