Göztepe 2:2 Çaykur Rizespor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Göztepe Home 2.65 xG · 25 shots

Çaykur Rizespor Away 0.70 xG · 11 shots

22 Göztepe had the better chances, but it finished level

Göztepe were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Göztepe's attack: 2.65 xG against 1.63 projected (+1.02). Çaykur Rizespor produced 0.70 xG against 1.30 projected (−0.60).

Goals

3' Arda Kurtulan Göztepe · 0.22 xG chance 1–0
70' Ibrahim Olawoyin Çaykur Rizespor · 0.12 xG chance 1–1
80' Iustin Doicaru Çaykur Rizespor · 0.18 xG chance 1–2
90' Efkan Bekiroğlu (pen.) Göztepe · 0.82 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Göztepe: 43%
Draw: 28% What happened
Çaykur Rizespor: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Göztepe 1.63 2.65 +1.02

Çaykur Rizespor 1.30 0.70 -0.60

Göztepe produced 1.02 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Göztepe Çaykur Rizespor

Shots: 25; 11
On target: 10; 4
Inside the box: 18; 6
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.62; 0.68
Set-piece xG: 0.28; 0.04
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.89 for Göztepe and 0.71 for Çaykur Rizespor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.44 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Göztepe
Çaykur Rizespor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Göztepe

1.92 xG created 2.16 xGA

L 2.20 created, 2.11 conceded against Samsunspor
D 1.71 created, 2.80 conceded against Samsunspor
L 1.92 created, 1.56 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
L 0.63 created, 2.87 conceded against Galatasaray
L 3.26 created, 1.88 conceded against Gaziantep FK
D 1.79 created, 1.72 conceded against Alanyaspor

Çaykur Rizespor

1.79 xG created 1.18 xGA

D 2.87 created, 1.82 conceded against Beşiktaş
W 1.52 created, 0.62 conceded against Konyaspor
L 1.85 created, 0.33 conceded against Samsunspor
W 1.17 created, 0.79 conceded against Gaziantep FK
L 1.28 created, 2.07 conceded against Alanyaspor
W 2.05 created, 1.42 conceded against Eyüpspor

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Göztepe: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Göztepe against Çaykur Rizespor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Göztepe 2+ goals	2.10	+4.9%	Won
Both teams to score	1.62	+3.5%	Won
Göztepe to win	2.35	+2.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+1.3%	Won
Göztepe to score	1.22	+1.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Göztepe	43.4%	39.5%	+3.9 pp	2.30
Draw	28.5%	27.3%	+1.1 pp	3.51
Çaykur Rizespor	28.1%	33.2%	−5.1 pp	3.56

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Göztepe to score	82.8%	76.6%	+6.2 pp	1.21
Göztepe not to score	17.2%	23.4%	−6.2 pp	5.81
Çaykur Rizespor to score	75.5%	73.1%	+2.3 pp	1.33
Çaykur Rizespor not to score	24.5%	26.9%	−2.3 pp	4.08
Both teams to score	64.1%	57.7%	+6.4 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	35.9%	42.3%	−6.4 pp	2.78
Göztepe 2+ goals	49.9%	44.3%	+5.7 pp	2.00
Göztepe at most 1 goal	50.1%	55.7%	−5.7 pp	2.00
Çaykur Rizespor 2+ goals	38.2%	39.2%	−1.1 pp	2.62
Çaykur Rizespor at most 1 goal	61.8%	60.8%	+1.1 pp	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	76.6%	+6.3 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	23.4%	−6.3 pp	5.84
Over 2.5 goals	57.7%	54.6%	+3.1 pp	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	42.3%	45.4%	−3.1 pp	2.36

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Göztepe sample: 20 matches
Çaykur Rizespor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.