Friday, 16/10/2026 at 19:00
10d 23h to kick-offÇorum FK – Çaykur Rizespor
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Çorum FK
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Çaykur Rizespor
- 28%
| Çorum FK | Draw | Çaykur Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.35 | 3.58 |
- Total goals
- 2.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Çorum FK
42% Çorum FK to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 13th
- Çorum FK attack v Çaykur Rizespor defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 8th
- Çorum FK defence v Çaykur Rizespor attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.25 vs +0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.21
- Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Çorum FK | Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.30 · 9th | (better) 1.43 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.56 · joint 12th | (better) 1.31 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.25 · 12th | (better) +0.12 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.36 · 11th | (better) 1.54 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.25 | (better) +0.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Çorum FK clean sheet
- 27%
- Çorum FK 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:2
- 8.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Çorum FK sample
- 6 matches
- Çaykur Rizespor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Çorum FK
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Çaykur Rizespor
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Warnings
- Çorum FK has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.