Erzurumspor FK 1:3 Çorum FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 11:30

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Erzurumspor FK Home 0.73 xG · 13 shots

Çorum FK Away 1.18 xG · 7 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

Erzurumspor FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. Çorum FK won 3–1. The biggest difference was Erzurumspor FK's attack: 0.73 xG against 1.18 projected (−0.45).

Goals

20' Çağlar Söyüncü Çorum FK · 0.06 xG chance 0–1
71' Jesús Ramírez Çorum FK · 0.20 xG chance 0–2
74' Ibrahim Diabaté Erzurumspor FK · 0.08 xG chance 1–2
79' Jesús Ramírez (pen.) Çorum FK · 0.82 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Erzurumspor FK: 37%
Draw: 34%
Çorum FK: 30% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Erzurumspor FK 1.18 0.73 -0.45

Çorum FK 1.05 1.18 +0.13

Erzurumspor FK produced 0.45 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Erzurumspor FK Çorum FK

Shots: 13; 7
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 9; 5
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.17
Open play xG: 0.65; 0.27
Set-piece xG: 0.11; 0.11
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.74 for Erzurumspor FK and 0.40 for Çorum FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 1.96 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Erzurumspor FK
Çorum FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.03 xG created 1.12 xGA

W 1.24 created, 1.56 conceded against Konyaspor
L 0.50 created, 2.29 conceded against Beşiktaş
W 0.72 created, 0.36 conceded against Samsunspor
D 1.41 created, 0.89 conceded against Alanyaspor
W 1.23 created, 0.44 conceded against Eyüpspor
W 1.09 created, 1.15 conceded against Gaziantep FK

Çorum FK

1.54 xG created 1.12 xGA

W 2.58 created, 0.73 conceded against Eyüpspor
W 1.73 created, 1.23 conceded against Samsunspor
L 1.11 created, 1.18 conceded against Alanyaspor
W 2.42 created, 0.88 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 0.66 created, 0.81 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 0.74 created, 1.91 conceded against Göztepe

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 qualified edges flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Erzurumspor FK against Çorum FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.30	+10.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.80	+9.3%	Lost
Çorum FK not to score	3.40	+8.5%	Lost
Çorum FK at most 1 goal	1.50	+7.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.40	+2.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Erzurumspor FK	36.7%	35.5%	+1.1 pp	2.73
Draw	33.6%	27.5%	+6.1 pp	2.98
Çorum FK	29.8%	37.0%	−7.2 pp	3.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Erzurumspor FK to score	72.3%	70.9%	+1.3 pp	1.38
Erzurumspor FK not to score	27.7%	29.1%	−1.3 pp	3.60
Çorum FK to score	68.1%	72.3%	−4.2 pp	1.47
Çorum FK not to score	31.9%	27.7%	+4.2 pp	3.13
Both teams to score	51.2%	51.5%	−0.3 pp	1.95
Both teams not to score	48.8%	48.5%	+0.3 pp	2.05
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals	33.7%	37.5%	−3.8 pp	2.97
Erzurumspor FK at most 1 goal	66.3%	62.5%	+3.8 pp	1.51
Çorum FK 2+ goals	28.5%	37.5%	−9.0 pp	3.51
Çorum FK at most 1 goal	71.5%	62.5%	+9.0 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	69.8%	72.3%	−2.5 pp	1.43
Under 1.5 goals	30.2%	27.7%	+2.5 pp	3.32
Over 2.5 goals	39.3%	47.4%	−8.1 pp	2.55
Under 2.5 goals	60.7%	52.6%	+8.1 pp	1.65

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Erzurumspor FK sample: 9 matches
Çorum FK sample: 9 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Erzurumspor FK has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Çorum FK has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.