Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 12:30
20d 12h to kick-offEyüpspor – Kasımpaşa
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Eyüpspor
- 33%
- Draw
- 37%
- Kasımpaşa
- 30%
| Eyüpspor | Draw | Kasımpaşa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.99 | 2.73 | 3.35 |
- Total goals
- 1.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 29%
- Both teams to score
- 43%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
33% Eyüpspor to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 3rd
- Eyüpspor attack v Kasımpaşa defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 18th
- Eyüpspor defence v Kasımpaşa attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.32 vs +0.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.98 – 0.91
- Eyüpspor v Kasımpaşa
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Eyüpspor | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.82 · 17th | (better) 1.14 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 2.15 · 17th | (better) 1.04 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -1.32 · 18th | (better) +0.10 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 18th | (better) 1.39 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.32 | (better) +0.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 46% of the model's distribution.
- Eyüpspor clean sheet
- 37%
- Eyüpspor 2+ goals
- 25%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 71%
- Both teams to score: no
- 57%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.9%
- 0:0
- 15.1%
- 1:0
- 12.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Eyüpspor sample
- 20 matches
- Kasımpaşa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Eyüpspor
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Kasımpaşa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.