Friday, 09/10/2026 at 19:00
5d 1h to kick-offGalatasaray – Kasımpaşa
Model updated 4 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Galatasaray
- 62%
- Draw
- 26%
- Kasımpaşa
- 11%
| Galatasaray | Draw | Kasımpaşa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.60 | 3.79 | 8.95 |
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 46%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Galatasaray
62% Galatasaray to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 3rd
- Galatasaray attack v Kasımpaşa defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 18th
- Galatasaray defence v Kasımpaşa attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.24 vs +0.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.72 – 0.67
- Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.36 · 1st | 1.14 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 1.12 · 4th | (better) 1.04 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.24 · 1st | +0.10 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.12 · 2nd | 1.39 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.24 | +0.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- Galatasaray clean sheet
- 48%
- Galatasaray 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 54%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0
- 13.9%
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 1:0
- 13.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Galatasaray sample
- 20 matches
- Kasımpaşa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Galatasaray
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Kasımpaşa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.