FC København 2:0 AC Horsens: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

FC København Home 1.05 xG · 14 shots

AC Horsens Away 0.63 xG · 11 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC København were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC København's attack: 1.05 xG against 1.78 projected (−0.73). AC Horsens produced 0.63 xG against 0.97 projected (−0.34).

Goals

7' Felix Beijmo FC København · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
49' Viktor Bjarki Dadason FC København · 0.04 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC København: 56% What happened
Draw: 27%
AC Horsens: 17%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC København 1.78 1.05 -0.73

AC Horsens 0.97 0.63 -0.34

FC København produced 0.73 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC København AC Horsens

Shots: 14; 11
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 9; 5
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.00; 0.37
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.23
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.21 for FC København and 0.59 for AC Horsens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 1.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC København
AC Horsens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC København

1.62 xG created 1.13 xGA

W 1.20 created, 1.52 conceded against Silkeborg IF
W 1.30 created, 0.46 conceded against Randers FC
L 0.34 created, 1.19 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.43 created, 0.78 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 1.62 created, 0.63 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
W 2.84 created, 2.18 conceded against Odense Boldklub

AC Horsens

1.08 xG created 1.56 xGA

L 0.41 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Midtjylland
L 0.49 created, 0.63 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 1.58 created, 1.37 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 0.76 created, 2.87 conceded against Lyngby
L 0.83 created, 1.92 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.42 created, 0.62 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC København sample: 20 matches
AC Horsens sample: 7 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

AC Horsens has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.