xgEdge

Expected goals

AC Horsens expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Superliga (Denmark) · after 9 matches · updated 1 Oct

AC Horsens's attacking and defensive expected goals in Superliga (Denmark) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

AC Horsens xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.09 xG per match
#10/12
Attack (xG per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland 2.35
#2 Lyngby 1.85
#3 FC København 1.62
=4 AGF 1.60
=4 Viborg FF 1.60
#6 Odense Boldklub 1.55
#7 FC Midtjylland 1.44
#8 Brøndby IF 1.22
#9 Silkeborg IF 1.10
#10 AC Horsens 1.09
#11 Randers FC 1.06
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 1.01
League avg
1.46
Total
9.81 9 matches
Defence
1.57 xGA per match
#9/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Midtjylland 1.11
#2 FC København 1.16
#3 Viborg FF 1.17
#4 Lyngby 1.36
#5 FC Nordsjælland 1.43
#6 Silkeborg IF 1.47
#7 Brøndby IF 1.54
#8 AGF 1.56
#9 AC Horsens 1.57
#10 Randers FC 1.65
#11 Odense Boldklub 1.68
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 1.81
League avg
1.46
Total
14.10 9 matches
xG difference
-0.48 xGD per match
#10/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland +0.93
#2 Lyngby +0.48
#3 FC København +0.46
#4 Viborg FF +0.43
#5 FC Midtjylland +0.33
#6 AGF +0.04
#7 Odense Boldklub -0.13
#8 Brøndby IF -0.32
#9 Silkeborg IF -0.36
#10 AC Horsens -0.48
#11 Randers FC -0.59
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold -0.80
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.29 9 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.05 xPts per match
#10/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland 1.90
#2 FC København 1.71
#3 Viborg FF 1.70
#4 FC Midtjylland 1.61
#5 Lyngby 1.61
#6 AGF 1.49
#7 Odense Boldklub 1.30
#8 Silkeborg IF 1.22
#9 Brøndby IF 1.18
#10 AC Horsens 1.05
#11 Randers FC 0.99
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
9.42 vs 11 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 9 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

AC Horsens's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Superliga (Denmark). They rank #10 for xG difference at -0.48 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 15 goals are 5.19 above 9.81 xG, while 11 points are 1.58 above 9.42 xPts. After only 9 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.37 xG from penalties
15 9.81 +5.19 scored 5.19 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
16 14.10 +1.90 conceded 1.90 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
11 9.42 +1.58 1.58 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

AC Horsens are 5.19 goals above their xG after 9 matches.

Goals
15
xG
9.81
Gap
+5.19
Sun 26/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Fri 28/08 Sun 06/09 Fri 11/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 -0.50 +0.09 -0.40 +0.02 +1.26 +2.43 +5.01 +4.38 +5.19 -0.50 +0.59 -0.49 +0.42 +1.24 +1.17 +2.58 -0.63 +0.81 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
AC Horsens: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 26/07 FC Nordsjælland 1 1.50 -0.50 -0.50
Sun 02/08 FC Midtjylland 1 0.41 +0.59 +0.09
Sun 09/08 Brøndby IF 0 0.49 -0.49 -0.40
Sun 16/08 Odense Boldklub 2 1.58 +0.42 +0.02
Sun 23/08 Lyngby 2 0.76 +1.24 +1.26
Fri 28/08 Viborg FF 2 0.83 +1.17 +2.43
Sun 06/09 Sønderjyske Fodbold 5 2.42 +2.58 +5.01
Fri 11/09 FC København 0 0.63 -0.63 +4.38
Sun 20/09 AGF 2 1.19 +0.81 +5.19

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

AC Horsens xG trend

Current form -0.23 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 9 matches. The worst was against FC Nordsjælland on Sun 26/07 (-2.03).

npxG · last 6
1.14
npxGA · last 6
1.37
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -2.03 Sun 26/07 -1.32 Sun 02/08 -0.33 Sun 09/08 +0.10 Sun 16/08 -1.53 Sun 23/08 -1.00 Fri 28/08 +1.60 Sun 06/09 -0.62 Fri 11/09 +0.06 Sun 20/09 -0.56 season avg
AC Horsens: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 26/07 FC Nordsjælland 0.82 2.85 -2.03 -2.03
Sun 02/08 FC Midtjylland 0.34 1.66 -1.32 -1.67
Sun 09/08 Brøndby IF 0.45 0.78 -0.33 -1.23
Sun 16/08 Odense Boldklub 1.52 1.42 +0.10 -0.90
Sun 23/08 Lyngby 0.70 2.23 -1.53 -1.02
Fri 28/08 Viborg FF 0.80 1.80 -1.00 -1.02
Sun 06/09 Sønderjyske Fodbold 2.21 0.61 +1.60 -0.64
Fri 11/09 FC København 0.59 1.21 -0.62 -0.64
Sun 20/09 AGF 1.01 0.95 +0.06 -0.56

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.94 npxG and 1.50 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 2 hardest of 12 in Superliga (Denmark)
+0.09 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
tied number 5 hardest of 12 in Superliga (Denmark)
+0.06 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · number 2 hardest of 12

  1. AGF Home +0.25
  2. FC København Away +0.38
  3. Sønderjyske Fodbold Away −0.51
  4. Viborg FF Home +0.16
  5. Lyngby Home 0.00
  6. Odense Boldklub Away −0.04
  7. Brøndby IF Home +0.05
  8. FC Midtjylland Away +0.09
  9. FC Nordsjælland Home +0.41

Last 5

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 5 hardest of 12

  1. AGF Home +0.25
  2. FC København Away +0.38
  3. Sønderjyske Fodbold Away −0.51
  4. Viborg FF Home +0.16
  5. Lyngby Home 0.00

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

AC Horsens shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. AC Horsens take 11.2 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #11 in Superliga (Denmark) for volume and #8 for quality. 50% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 37% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.2 shots per match
#11/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland 17.6
#2 AGF 16.8
#3 Odense Boldklub 15.3
#4 Brøndby IF 15.2
#5 FC København 15.0
#6 Lyngby 14.8
#7 FC Midtjylland 14.2
#8 Viborg FF 13.6
#9 Sønderjyske Fodbold 11.6
#10 Silkeborg IF 11.4
#11 AC Horsens 11.2
#12 Randers FC 9.9
League avg
13.9
Total
101 shots from 9 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#8/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FC Nordsjælland 0.13
#2 Viborg FF 0.12
#3 Randers FC 0.10
#4 FC København 0.10
#5 Lyngby 0.10
#6 FC Midtjylland 0.10
#7 Odense Boldklub 0.09
#8 AC Horsens 0.08
#9 Silkeborg IF 0.08
#10 AGF 0.08
#11 Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.08
#12 Brøndby IF 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
8.44 npxG from 101 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.0 shots per match
#10/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC København 11.9
#2 Silkeborg IF 12.4
#3 Brøndby IF 12.6
=4 FC Midtjylland 12.9
=4 Lyngby 12.9
#6 FC Nordsjælland 13.3
#7 Odense Boldklub 13.6
=8 AGF 13.7
=8 Viborg FF 13.7
#10 AC Horsens 15.0
#11 Randers FC 16.4
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 18.2
League avg
13.9
Total
135 shots allowed from 9 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#9/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Viborg FF 0.08
#2 FC Midtjylland 0.08
#3 AGF 0.09
#4 FC Nordsjælland 0.09
#5 FC København 0.09
#6 Randers FC 0.09
#7 Lyngby 0.10
#8 Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.10
#9 AC Horsens 0.10
#10 Brøndby IF 0.11
#11 Odense Boldklub 0.11
#12 Silkeborg IF 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
13.51 npxGA from 135 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

50% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 50 of 101 shots over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

71% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 96 of 135 shots allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

63% open play · 37% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 3.1 of 8.4 npxG over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 3.7 of 13.2 npxG allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

AC Horsens home and away xG

AC Horsens per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 4
xG / match 0.95 1.26
xGA / match 1.82 1.25
xGD / match -0.86 +0.01
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.82 1.33

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every AC Horsens match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
9
xG / match
1.09
xGA / match
1.57
xGD / match
-0.48
Points
11 of 27
  1. Sun 20/09 AGF H xG 1.19 xGA 1.01 xGD +0.18
  2. Fri 11/09 FC København A xG 0.63 xGA 1.05 xGD -0.42
  3. Sun 06/09 Sønderjyske Fodbold A Best underlying xG 2.42 xGA 0.62 xGD +1.80
  4. Fri 28/08 Viborg FF H xG 0.83 xGA 1.92 xGD -1.09
  5. Sun 23/08 Lyngby H Against the chances xG 0.76 xGA 2.87 P xGD -2.11
  6. Sun 16/08 Odense Boldklub A xG 1.58 xGA 1.37 xGD +0.21
  7. Sun 09/08 Brøndby IF H xG 0.49 xGA 0.63 xGD -0.14
  8. Sun 02/08 FC Midtjylland A xG 0.41 xGA 1.97 xGD -1.56
  9. Sun 26/07 FC Nordsjælland H xG 1.50 P xGA 2.66 xGD -1.16

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

AC Horsens in Superliga (Denmark)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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