AC Horsens 2:2 AGF: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

AC Horsens Home 1.19 xG · 20 shots

AGF Away 1.01 xG · 14 shots

22 The chances were evenly matched

AGF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was AGF's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.44).

Goals

58' Magnus Knudsen AGF · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
68' Callum McCowatt AGF · 0.08 xG chance 0–2
89' Jacob Bonde AC Horsens · 0.08 xG chance 1–2
90' Ivan Miličević AC Horsens · 0.03 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AC Horsens: 26%
Draw: 31% What happened
AGF: 43%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AC Horsens 1.11 1.19 +0.08

AGF 1.45 1.01 -0.44

AGF produced 0.44 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AC Horsens AGF

Shots: 20; 14
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.68; 0.70
Set-piece xG: 0.32; 0.26
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.01 for AC Horsens and 0.95 for AGF.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 1.96 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

AC Horsens
AGF
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AC Horsens

1.12 xG created 1.41 xGA

L 0.49 created, 0.63 conceded against Brøndby IF
W 1.58 created, 1.37 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 0.76 created, 2.87 conceded against Lyngby
L 0.83 created, 1.92 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.42 created, 0.62 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 0.63 created, 1.05 conceded against FC København

AGF

1.69 xG created 1.45 xGA

L 1.92 created, 1.03 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.88 created, 0.81 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.97 created, 1.10 conceded against Randers FC
L 1.21 created, 1.71 conceded against FC Midtjylland
D 1.92 created, 1.23 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 1.26 created, 2.79 conceded against FC Nordsjælland

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AC Horsens against AGF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.75	+15.4%	Won
AGF at most 1 goal	1.91	+7.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.08	+7.6%	Lost
AGF not to score	5.00	+5.0%	Lost
AC Horsens to win	3.90	+2.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Horsens	26.2%	24.1%	+2.1 pp	3.81
Draw	30.8%	25.1%	+5.7 pp	3.25
AGF	43.0%	50.8%	−7.8 pp	2.33

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Horsens to score	70.1%	66.3%	+3.8 pp	1.43
AC Horsens not to score	29.9%	33.7%	−3.8 pp	3.34
AGF to score	79.0%	81.1%	−2.1 pp	1.27
AGF not to score	21.0%	18.9%	+2.1 pp	4.76
Both teams to score	57.2%	55.7%	+1.4 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.8%	44.3%	−1.4 pp	2.34
AC Horsens 2+ goals	30.7%	31.3%	−0.6 pp	3.26
AC Horsens at most 1 goal	69.3%	68.7%	+0.6 pp	1.44
AGF 2+ goals	43.5%	51.5%	−7.9 pp	2.30
AGF at most 1 goal	56.5%	48.5%	+7.9 pp	1.77
Over 1.5 goals	76.7%	76.6%	+0.1 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	23.3%	23.4%	−0.1 pp	4.28
Over 2.5 goals	48.1%	54.6%	−6.4 pp	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	51.9%	45.4%	+6.4 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AC Horsens sample: 8 matches
AGF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

AC Horsens has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.