xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Nordsjælland expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Superliga (Denmark) · after 9 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Nordsjælland's attacking and defensive expected goals in Superliga (Denmark) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Nordsjælland xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.35 xG per match
#1/12
Attack (xG per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland 2.35
#2 Lyngby 1.85
#3 FC København 1.62
=4 AGF 1.60
=4 Viborg FF 1.60
#6 Odense Boldklub 1.55
#7 FC Midtjylland 1.44
#8 Brøndby IF 1.22
#9 Silkeborg IF 1.10
#10 AC Horsens 1.09
#11 Randers FC 1.06
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 1.01
League avg
1.46
Total
21.19 9 matches
Defence
1.43 xGA per match
#5/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Midtjylland 1.11
#2 FC København 1.16
#3 Viborg FF 1.17
#4 Lyngby 1.36
#5 FC Nordsjælland 1.43
#6 Silkeborg IF 1.47
#7 Brøndby IF 1.54
#8 AGF 1.56
#9 AC Horsens 1.57
#10 Randers FC 1.65
#11 Odense Boldklub 1.68
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 1.81
League avg
1.46
Total
12.86 9 matches
xG difference
+0.93 xGD per match
#1/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland +0.93
#2 Lyngby +0.48
#3 FC København +0.46
#4 Viborg FF +0.43
#5 FC Midtjylland +0.33
#6 AGF +0.04
#7 Odense Boldklub -0.13
#8 Brøndby IF -0.32
#9 Silkeborg IF -0.36
#10 AC Horsens -0.48
#11 Randers FC -0.59
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold -0.80
League avg
0.00
Total
+8.33 9 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.90 xPts per match
#1/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland 1.90
#2 FC København 1.71
#3 Viborg FF 1.70
#4 FC Midtjylland 1.61
#5 Lyngby 1.61
#6 AGF 1.49
#7 Odense Boldklub 1.30
#8 Silkeborg IF 1.22
#9 Brøndby IF 1.18
#10 AC Horsens 1.05
#11 Randers FC 0.99
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
17.07 vs 17 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 9 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Nordsjælland's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +0.93 per match, driven by both the league's highest shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 14 goals are 7.19 below 21.19 xG, while 17 points are 0.07 below 17.07 xPts. After only 9 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.89 xG from penalties
14 21.19 -7.19 scored 7.19 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
10 12.86 -2.86 conceded 2.86 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
17 17.07 -0.07 0.07 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Nordsjælland are 7.19 goals below their xG after 9 matches.

Goals
14
xG
21.19
Gap
-7.19
Sun 26/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Sun 30/08 Thu 03/09 Mon 07/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -1.66 -4.36 -6.06 -5.03 -5.35 -5.98 -6.08 -6.87 -7.19 -1.66 -2.70 -1.70 +1.03 -0.32 -0.63 -0.10 -0.79 -0.32 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Nordsjælland: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 26/07 AC Horsens 1 2.66 -1.66 -1.66
Sun 02/08 Randers FC 1 3.70 -2.70 -4.36
Sun 16/08 Silkeborg IF 1 2.70 -1.70 -6.06
Sun 23/08 Sønderjyske Fodbold 3 1.97 +1.03 -5.03
Sun 30/08 Brøndby IF 3 3.32 -0.32 -5.35
Thu 03/09 FC København 0 0.63 -0.63 -5.98
Mon 07/09 FC Midtjylland 2 2.10 -0.10 -6.08
Sun 13/09 AGF 2 2.79 -0.79 -6.87
Sun 20/09 Viborg FF 1 1.32 -0.32 -7.19

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

FC Nordsjælland xG trend

Current form +0.45 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 7 of 9 matches. The worst was against FC København on Thu 03/09 (-0.83).

npxG · last 6
1.95
npxGA · last 6
1.50
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.03 Sun 26/07 +2.58 Sun 02/08 +2.31 Sun 16/08 +0.92 Sun 23/08 +1.76 Sun 30/08 -0.83 Thu 03/09 +0.37 Mon 07/09 +1.13 Sun 13/09 -0.66 Sun 20/09 +1.07 season avg
FC Nordsjælland: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 26/07 AC Horsens 2.85 0.82 +2.03 +2.03
Sun 02/08 Randers FC 3.31 0.73 +2.58 +2.31
Sun 16/08 Silkeborg IF 2.44 0.13 +2.31 +2.31
Sun 23/08 Sønderjyske Fodbold 2.14 1.22 +0.92 +1.96
Sun 30/08 Brøndby IF 3.21 1.45 +1.76 +1.92
Thu 03/09 FC København 0.62 1.45 -0.83 +1.46
Mon 07/09 FC Midtjylland 1.91 1.54 +0.37 +1.31
Sun 13/09 AGF 2.42 1.29 +1.13 +1.28
Sun 20/09 Viborg FF 1.40 2.06 -0.66 +1.07

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.26 npxG and 1.19 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 8 hardest of 12 in Superliga (Denmark)
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 12 in Superliga (Denmark)
+0.19 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · number 8 hardest of 12

  1. Viborg FF Away +0.16
  2. AGF Home +0.25
  3. FC Midtjylland Away +0.09
  4. FC København Away +0.38
  5. Brøndby IF Home +0.05
  6. Sønderjyske Fodbold Away −0.51
  7. Silkeborg IF Home −0.30
  8. Randers FC Home −0.27
  9. AC Horsens Away −0.22

Last 5

+0.19 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 12

  1. Viborg FF Away +0.16
  2. AGF Home +0.25
  3. FC Midtjylland Away +0.09
  4. FC København Away +0.38
  5. Brøndby IF Home +0.05

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Nordsjælland shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. FC Nordsjælland take 17.6 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #1 in Superliga (Denmark) for volume and #1 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
17.6 shots per match
#1/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Nordsjælland 17.6
#2 AGF 16.8
#3 Odense Boldklub 15.3
#4 Brøndby IF 15.2
#5 FC København 15.0
#6 Lyngby 14.8
#7 FC Midtjylland 14.2
#8 Viborg FF 13.6
#9 Sønderjyske Fodbold 11.6
#10 Silkeborg IF 11.4
#11 AC Horsens 11.2
#12 Randers FC 9.9
League avg
13.9
Total
158 shots from 9 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#1/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FC Nordsjælland 0.13
#2 Viborg FF 0.12
#3 Randers FC 0.10
#4 FC København 0.10
#5 Lyngby 0.10
#6 FC Midtjylland 0.10
#7 Odense Boldklub 0.09
#8 AC Horsens 0.08
#9 Silkeborg IF 0.08
#10 AGF 0.08
#11 Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.08
#12 Brøndby IF 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
20.30 npxG from 158 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.3 shots per match
#6/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC København 11.9
#2 Silkeborg IF 12.4
#3 Brøndby IF 12.6
=4 FC Midtjylland 12.9
=4 Lyngby 12.9
#6 FC Nordsjælland 13.3
#7 Odense Boldklub 13.6
=8 AGF 13.7
=8 Viborg FF 13.7
#10 AC Horsens 15.0
#11 Randers FC 16.4
#12 Sønderjyske Fodbold 18.2
League avg
13.9
Total
120 shots allowed from 9 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#4/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Superliga (Denmark), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Viborg FF 0.08
#2 FC Midtjylland 0.08
#3 AGF 0.09
#4 FC Nordsjælland 0.09
#5 FC København 0.09
#6 Randers FC 0.09
#7 Lyngby 0.10
#8 Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.10
#9 AC Horsens 0.10
#10 Brøndby IF 0.11
#11 Odense Boldklub 0.11
#12 Silkeborg IF 0.12
League avg
0.10
Total
10.69 npxGA from 120 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 107 of 158 shots over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 75 of 120 shots allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 2.8 of 20.1 npxG over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

68% open play · 32% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 3.4 of 10.7 npxG allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Nordsjælland home and away xG

FC Nordsjælland per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 5
xG / match 3.13 1.74
xGA / match 1.00 1.78
xGD / match +2.13 -0.04
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.59 1.34

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Nordsjælland match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.74
xGA / match
1.78
xGD / match
-0.04
Points
5 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 Viborg FF A Weakest underlying xG 1.32 xGA 2.60 P xGD -1.28
  2. Mon 07/09 FC Midtjylland A xG 2.10 xGA 1.88 xGD +0.22
  3. Thu 03/09 FC København A xG 0.63 xGA 1.62 xGD -0.99
  4. Sun 23/08 Sønderjyske Fodbold A xG 1.97 xGA 1.28 xGD +0.69
  5. Sun 26/07 AC Horsens A Best underlying xG 2.66 xGA 1.50 P xGD +1.16

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Nordsjælland in Superliga (Denmark)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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