Friday, 23/10/2026 at 19:00
19d 17h to kick-offRanders FC – Brøndby IF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 21 September, 10:30
What the model expects
- Randers FC
- 32%
- Draw
- 32%
- Brøndby IF
- 36%
| Randers FC | Draw | Brøndby IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.14 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
- Total goals
- 2.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Randers FC
- Model
- 31.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 30.1%
- Probability gap
- +1.8 pp
- Edge
- +0.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.14
- Market odds
- 3.15 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.29
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.3%
- Probability gap
- +6.5 pp
- Edge
- +19.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.15
- Market odds
- 3.75 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.31
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.6%
-
Brøndby IF
- Model
- 36.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 44.7%
- Probability gap
- −8.3 pp
- Edge
- −22.9%
- Fair odds
- 2.75
- Market odds
- 2.12 Pinnacle
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.89
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.6%
Outcomes with value
Randers FC to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Randers FC to win
Model 31.9% vs. bookmaker 30.1%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
36% Brøndby IF to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 9th
- Brøndby IF attack v Randers FC defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 11th
- Brøndby IF defence v Randers FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.21 vs -0.26
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.20 – 1.29
- Randers FC v Brøndby IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Randers FC | Brøndby IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.06 · 11th | (better) 1.22 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.65 · 10th | (better) 1.54 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.59 · 11th | (better) -0.32 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 0.99 · 11th | (better) 1.18 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.26 | (better) -0.21 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Brøndby IF clean sheet
- 27%
- Brøndby IF 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Randers FC sample
- 20 matches
- Brøndby IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Randers FC
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Brøndby IF
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 12 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.