Brøndby IF 0:1 FC København: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Brøndby IF Home 0.71 xG · 9 shots

FC København Away 2.27 xG · 14 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Brøndby IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. FC København won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC København's attack: 2.27 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.98). Brøndby IF produced 0.71 xG against 1.40 projected (−0.69).

Goals

79' Andreas Cornelius FC København · 0.16 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Brøndby IF: 38%
Draw: 30%
FC København: 32% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Brøndby IF 1.40 0.71 -0.69

FC København 1.29 2.27 +0.98

FC København produced 0.98 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Brøndby IF FC København

Shots: 9; 14
On target: 2; 3
Inside the box: 8; 12
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.47; 1.47
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.63
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.57 for Brøndby IF and 2.14 for FC København.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.66 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Brøndby IF
FC København
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brøndby IF

1.36 xG created 1.29 xGA

W 0.63 created, 0.49 conceded against AC Horsens
W 1.63 created, 0.92 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 2.14 created, 0.99 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 1.76 created, 3.32 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
L 1.19 created, 0.85 conceded against Randers FC
L 0.80 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Midtjylland

FC København

1.60 xG created 0.98 xGA

W 1.30 created, 0.46 conceded against Randers FC
L 0.34 created, 1.19 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.43 created, 0.78 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
W 1.62 created, 0.63 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
W 2.84 created, 2.18 conceded against Odense Boldklub
W 1.05 created, 0.63 conceded against AC Horsens

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Brøndby IF: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Brøndby IF against FC København before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Brøndby IF to win	3.30	+24.1%	Lost
FC København at most 1 goal	1.83	+13.8%	Won
FC København not to score	4.50	+11.3%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+6.1%	Lost
Brøndby IF 2+ goals	2.50	+5.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+3.2%	Won
Brøndby IF to score	1.30	+1.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Brøndby IF	37.6%	28.5%	+9.2 pp	2.66
Draw	30.3%	26.8%	+3.5 pp	3.30
FC København	32.1%	44.7%	−12.7 pp	3.12

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Brøndby IF to score	78.3%	72.3%	+5.9 pp	1.28
Brøndby IF not to score	21.7%	27.7%	−5.9 pp	4.60
FC København to score	75.3%	79.2%	−3.9 pp	1.33
FC København not to score	24.7%	20.8%	+3.9 pp	4.04
Both teams to score	60.7%	58.9%	+1.8 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	41.1%	−1.8 pp	2.54
Brøndby IF 2+ goals	42.1%	37.5%	+4.6 pp	2.37
Brøndby IF at most 1 goal	57.9%	62.5%	−4.6 pp	1.73
FC København 2+ goals	37.9%	50.0%	−12.1 pp	2.64
FC København at most 1 goal	62.1%	50.0%	+12.1 pp	1.61
Over 1.5 goals	79.3%	78.3%	+1.0 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.7%	21.7%	−1.0 pp	4.84
Over 2.5 goals	52.0%	56.3%	−4.3 pp	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	48.0%	43.7%	+4.3 pp	2.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Brøndby IF sample: 20 matches
FC København sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.