Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeRanders FC 1:2 Odense Boldklub
Randers FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Odense Boldklub won 2–1. The biggest difference was Randers FC's attack: 1.68 xG against 1.36 projected (+0.32).
Goals
- 20' Topi Keskinen Odense Boldklub · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
- 50' Laurits Pedersen Randers FC · 0.38 xG chance 1–1
- 77' Alexander Ahl Holmström Odense Boldklub · 0.08 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Randers FC
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Odense Boldklub
- 34% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Randers FC produced 0.32 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 19
- On target
- 2
- 5
- Inside the box
- 7
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.85
- 0.70
- Set-piece xG
- 0.56
- 0.29
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.43 for Randers FC and 0.96 for Odense Boldklub.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 2.40 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Randers FC
- Odense Boldklub
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.95 xG created 1.88 xGA
1.56 xG created 1.80 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC not to score | 5.00 | +14.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | +14.2% | Lost |
| Randers FC at most 1 goal | 1.91 | +13.7% | Won |
| Odense Boldklub to win | 3.25 | +9.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +5.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC | 35.9% | 43.9% | −8.1 pp | 2.79 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 27.0% | +3.5 pp | 3.28 |
| Odense Boldklub | 33.6% | 29.1% | +4.5 pp | 2.98 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC to score | 77.1% | 81.1% | −4.0 pp | 1.30 |
| Randers FC not to score | 22.9% | 18.9% | +4.0 pp | 4.37 |
| Odense Boldklub to score | 75.9% | 73.1% | +2.7 pp | 1.32 |
| Odense Boldklub not to score | 24.1% | 26.9% | −2.7 pp | 4.15 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 58.9% | +1.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.7% | 41.1% | −1.4 pp | 2.52 |
| Randers FC 2+ goals | 40.5% | 51.5% | −11.0 pp | 2.47 |
| Randers FC at most 1 goal | 59.5% | 48.5% | +11.0 pp | 1.68 |
| Odense Boldklub 2+ goals | 38.7% | 39.2% | −0.5 pp | 2.58 |
| Odense Boldklub at most 1 goal | 61.3% | 60.8% | +0.5 pp | 1.63 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | 81.1% | −2.2 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 18.9% | +2.2 pp | 4.74 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 59.9% | −8.5 pp | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 40.1% | +8.5 pp | 2.06 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Randers FC sample
- 20 matches
- Odense Boldklub sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.