Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeFC Dinamo București 4:0 FC Farul Constanța
FC Dinamo București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 62%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was FC Dinamo București's attack: 2.74 xG against 2.13 projected (+0.61). FC Farul Constanța produced 1.42 xG against 1.03 projected (+0.39).
The model against the result
- FC Dinamo București
- 62% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- FC Farul Constanța
- 15%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Dinamo București produced 0.61 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 10
- On target
- 7
- 6
- Inside the box
- 15
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.14
Recent form
1.98 xG created 1.09 xGA
- D 1.65 created, 0.48 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 1.42 created, 1.72 conceded against FC Rapid București
- W 1.51 created, 1.94 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- D 1.78 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- W 3.26 created, 0.68 conceded against FCSB
- W 2.25 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
1.55 xG created 1.84 xGA
- D 1.97 created, 4.29 conceded against FCSB
- W 1.21 created, 0.55 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- D 1.05 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 0.72 created, 1.53 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 2.25 created, 2.32 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 2.07 created, 1.98 conceded against UTA Arad
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +13.8% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +11.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +7.4% | Won |
| FC Dinamo București to win | 1.62 | +0.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București | 62.3% | 55.9% | +6.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.1% | −2.0 pp | 4.33 |
| FC Farul Constanța | 14.7% | 19.0% | −4.3 pp | 6.82 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 51.5% | +10.5 pp | 1.61 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.1% | 48.5% | −10.5 pp | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | 75.0% | +10.9 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.1% | 25.0% | −10.9 pp | 7.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 52.6% | +10.6 pp | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | 47.4% | −10.6 pp | 2.72 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Dinamo București sample
- 20 matches
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.