FC Voluntari 0:2 FC Universitatea Cluj: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 13:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Voluntari Home 1.43 xG

FC Universitatea Cluj Away 2.49 xG

02 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Universitatea Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FC Universitatea Cluj's attack: 2.49 xG against 1.80 projected (+0.69).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Voluntari: 31%
Draw: 26%
FC Universitatea Cluj: 42% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Voluntari 1.56 1.43 -0.13

FC Universitatea Cluj 1.80 2.49 +0.69

FC Universitatea Cluj produced 0.69 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Voluntari FC Universitatea Cluj

Shots: 16; 17
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.15

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Voluntari

1.32 xG created 2.63 xGA

L 1.16 created, 2.88 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
W 0.79 created, 1.51 conceded against UTA Arad
L 2.04 created, 2.23 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 0.87 created, 4.58 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 1.96 created, 2.65 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
L 1.09 created, 1.93 conceded against FC Rapid București

FC Universitatea Cluj

2.19 xG created 1.73 xGA

W 3.14 created, 2.14 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 2.30 created, 2.47 conceded against UTA Arad
L 1.94 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 3.33 created, 2.02 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 0.66 created, 2.05 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
W 1.78 created, 0.20 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Voluntari against FC Universitatea Cluj before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+16.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+15.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+7.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Voluntari	31.4%	29.7%	+1.8 pp	3.18
Draw	26.5%	27.0%	−0.5 pp	3.78
FC Universitatea Cluj	42.1%	43.4%	−1.3 pp	2.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.3%	57.7%	+13.6 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.7%	42.3%	−13.6 pp	3.48
Over 1.5 goals	88.3%	76.6%	+11.7 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.7%	23.4%	−11.7 pp	8.55
Over 2.5 goals	67.3%	54.6%	+12.8 pp	1.48
Under 2.5 goals	32.7%	45.4%	−12.8 pp	3.06

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Voluntari sample: 8 matches
FC Universitatea Cluj sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

FC Voluntari has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.