Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 15h to kick-offFK Novi Pazar – FK IMT Beograd
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Novi Pazar
- 28%
- Draw
- 32%
- FK IMT Beograd
- 40%
| FK Novi Pazar | Draw | FK IMT Beograd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.55 | 3.16 | 2.49 |
- Total goals
- 2.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK IMT Beograd
40% FK IMT Beograd to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 10th
- FK IMT Beograd attack v FK Novi Pazar defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 7th
- FK IMT Beograd defence v FK Novi Pazar attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.90 vs +0.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.12 – 1.35
- FK Novi Pazar v FK IMT Beograd
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Novi Pazar | FK IMT Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.00 · 6th | 1.85 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 2.04 · 10th | (better) 1.13 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.04 · 9th | (better) +0.72 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.44 · 8th | (better) 1.67 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.15 | (better) +0.90 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- FK IMT Beograd clean sheet
- 30%
- FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:2
- 10.2%
- 0:1
- 9.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Novi Pazar
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FK IMT Beograd
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.