xgEdge

Expected goals

OFK Beograd expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

SuperLiga (Serbia) · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

OFK Beograd's attacking and defensive expected goals in SuperLiga (Serbia) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

OFK Beograd xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.29 xG per match
#11/14
Attack (xG per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 2.78
#2 FK Vojvodina 2.77
#3 FK Partizan 2.36
#4 FK Radnički 1923 2.14
#5 FK Železničar Pančevo 2.13
#6 FK Novi Pazar 2.00
#7 FK IMT Beograd 1.85
#8 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.62
#9 FK Čukarički 1.50
#10 FK Radnički Niš 1.48
#11 OFK Beograd 1.29
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 1.08
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.80
#14 FK Zemun 0.73
League avg
1.76
Total
9.01 7 matches
Defence
2.09 xGA per match
#11/14
Defence (xGA per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 0.98
#2 FK IMT Beograd 1.13
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 1.26
#4 FK Radnički 1923 1.35
#5 FK Radnički Niš 1.42
#6 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.46
#7 FK Vojvodina 1.49
#8 FK Partizan 1.55
#9 FK Čukarički 1.67
#10 FK Novi Pazar 2.04
#11 OFK Beograd 2.09
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 2.11
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 2.46
#14 FK Zemun 3.60
League avg
1.76
Total
14.60 7 matches
xG difference
-0.80 xGD per match
#11/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda +1.80
#2 FK Vojvodina +1.28
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo +0.87
#4 FK Partizan +0.81
#5 FK Radnički 1923 +0.79
#6 FK IMT Beograd +0.72
#7 FK Radnik Surdulica +0.16
#8 FK Radnički Niš +0.06
#9 FK Novi Pazar -0.04
#10 FK Čukarički -0.16
#11 OFK Beograd -0.80
#12 FK Mladost Lučani -1.03
#13 FK Mačva Šabac -1.66
#14 FK Zemun -2.86
League avg
0.00
Total
-5.59 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.86 xPts per match
#11/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 2.36
#2 FK Vojvodina 1.93
#3 FK Radnički 1923 1.92
#4 FK Partizan 1.81
#5 FK Železničar Pančevo 1.78
#6 FK IMT Beograd 1.67
#7 FK Radnički Niš 1.51
#8 FK Novi Pazar 1.44
#9 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.39
#10 FK Čukarički 1.32
#11 OFK Beograd 0.86
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 0.69
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.68
#14 FK Zemun 0.17
League avg
1.41
Total
6.03 vs 9 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

Expected goals here are summed over 7 of 10 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

OFK Beograd's underlying numbers are among the weakest in SuperLiga (Serbia). They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.80 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 9 goals are 0.01 below 9.01 xG, while 4 points are 2.03 below 6.03 xPts — both over the 7 matches with xG. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
9 9.01 -0.01 scored 0.01 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
18 14.60 +3.40 conceded 3.40 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
4 6.03 -2.03 2.03 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

OFK Beograd are 0.01 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -1.31, against FK Radnik Surdulica on Sat 25/07.

Goals
9
xG
9.01
Gap
-0.01
Sun 19/07 Sat 25/07 Sat 01/08 Sat 15/08 Mon 31/08 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.29 -1.31 -0.15 -0.72 -1.04 -1.06 -0.01 -0.29 -1.02 +1.16 -0.57 -0.32 -0.02 +1.05 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
OFK Beograd: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 19/07 FK Vojvodina 0 0.29 -0.29 -0.29
Sat 25/07 FK Radnik Surdulica 0 1.02 -1.02 -1.31
Sat 01/08 FK Novi Pazar 4 2.84 +1.16 -0.15
Sat 15/08 FK Čukarički 0 0.57 -0.57 -0.72
Mon 31/08 FK Partizan 1 1.32 -0.32 -1.04
Sun 13/09 FK Radnički Niš 1 1.02 -0.02 -1.06
Sat 19/09 FK Radnički 1923 3 1.95 +1.05 -0.01

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

OFK Beograd xG trend

Current form -0.62 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against FK Vojvodina on Sun 19/07 (-1.86).

npxG · last 6
1.45
npxGA · last 6
2.08
-2 -1 0 +1 -1.86 Sun 19/07 +0.23 Sat 25/07 +0.39 Sat 01/08 -1.09 Sat 15/08 -1.39 Mon 31/08 -1.64 Sun 13/09 -0.23 Sat 19/09 -0.80 season avg
OFK Beograd: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 19/07 FK Vojvodina 0.29 2.15 -1.86 -1.86
Sat 25/07 FK Radnik Surdulica 1.02 0.79 +0.23 -0.82
Sat 01/08 FK Novi Pazar 2.84 2.45 +0.39 -0.41
Sat 15/08 FK Čukarički 0.57 1.66 -1.09 -0.58
Mon 31/08 FK Partizan 1.32 2.71 -1.39 -0.74
Sun 13/09 FK Radnički Niš 1.02 2.66 -1.64 -0.89
Sat 19/09 FK Radnički 1923 1.95 2.18 -0.23 -0.80

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.29 npxG and 2.09 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 4 hardest of 14 in SuperLiga (Serbia)
+0.06 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 8 hardest of 14 in SuperLiga (Serbia)
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.06 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · number 4 hardest of 14

  1. FK Radnički 1923 Home +0.29
  2. FK Radnički Niš Away −0.02
  3. FK IMT Beograd Home +0.44
  4. FK Partizan Away +0.59
  5. FK Zemun Home −1.19
  6. FK Čukarički Away −0.12
  7. FK Železničar Pančevo Home +0.22
  8. FK Novi Pazar Away −0.09
  9. FK Radnik Surdulica Home −0.03
  10. FK Vojvodina Away +0.47

Last 5

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 14

  1. FK Radnički 1923 Home +0.29
  2. FK Radnički Niš Away −0.02
  3. FK IMT Beograd Home +0.44
  4. FK Partizan Away +0.59
  5. FK Zemun Home −1.19

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

OFK Beograd shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. OFK Beograd take 11.3 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #11 in SuperLiga (Serbia) for volume and #9 for quality. 51% of their shots come from inside the box (league 59%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.3 shots per match
#11/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FK Partizan 20.0
#2 FK Crvena zvezda 19.3
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 18.8
#4 FK Vojvodina 17.3
#5 FK Radnik Surdulica 16.3
#6 FK Radnički 1923 16.2
=7 FK IMT Beograd 14.0
=7 FK Novi Pazar 14.0
#9 FK Radnički Niš 13.7
#10 FK Čukarički 12.0
#11 OFK Beograd 11.3
#12 FK Mladost Lučani 9.0
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 8.6
#14 FK Zemun 8.3
League avg
14.2
Total
79 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#9/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FK Vojvodina 0.16
#2 FK Crvena zvezda 0.14
#3 FK Novi Pazar 0.14
#4 FK Radnički 1923 0.13
#5 FK IMT Beograd 0.13
#6 FK Čukarički 0.12
#7 FK Mladost Lučani 0.12
#8 FK Partizan 0.12
#9 OFK Beograd 0.11
#10 FK Železničar Pančevo 0.11
#11 FK Radnički Niš 0.11
#12 FK Radnik Surdulica 0.10
#13 FK Mačva Šabac 0.09
#14 FK Zemun 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
9.01 npxG from 79 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.9 shots per match
#8/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FK Crvena zvezda 8.9
#2 FK IMT Beograd 9.7
#3 FK Železničar Pančevo 9.8
#4 FK Vojvodina 11.6
#5 FK Partizan 11.9
#6 FK Radnički 1923 11.9
#7 FK Radnik Surdulica 12.9
#8 OFK Beograd 13.9
#9 FK Radnički Niš 13.9
#10 FK Novi Pazar 15.3
#11 FK Čukarički 15.7
#12 FK Mačva Šabac 19.1
#13 FK Mladost Lučani 19.4
#14 FK Zemun 24.4
League avg
14.2
Total
97 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.15 npxGA per shot
#14/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across SuperLiga (Serbia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FK Radnički Niš 0.10
#2 FK Čukarički 0.11
#3 FK Mladost Lučani 0.11
#4 FK Radnik Surdulica 0.11
#5 FK Crvena zvezda 0.11
#6 FK Radnički 1923 0.11
#7 FK IMT Beograd 0.12
#8 FK Mačva Šabac 0.13
#9 FK Železničar Pančevo 0.13
#10 FK Vojvodina 0.13
#11 FK Novi Pazar 0.13
#12 FK Partizan 0.13
#13 FK Zemun 0.15
#14 OFK Beograd 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
14.60 npxGA from 97 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

51% inside the box

League avg 59%

From 40 of 79 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

59% allowed inside the box

League avg 59%

From 57 of 97 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

OFK Beograd home and away xG

OFK Beograd per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 5 2 with xG 5
xG / match 1.49 1.21
xGA / match 1.49 2.33
xGD / match +0.00 -1.12
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.38 0.65

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every OFK Beograd match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
5 2 with xG
xG / match
1.48
xGA / match
1.49
xGD / match
0.00
Points
6 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 FK Radnički 1923 H xG 1.95 xGA 2.18 xGD -0.23
  2. Mon 07/09 FK IMT Beograd H
  3. Sat 22/08 FK Zemun H
  4. Sun 09/08 FK Železničar Pančevo H
  5. Sat 25/07 FK Radnik Surdulica H xG 1.02 xGA 0.79 xGD +0.23

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

OFK Beograd in SuperLiga (Serbia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect