xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Lugano expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Swiss Super League · after 9 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Lugano's attacking and defensive expected goals in Swiss Super League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Lugano xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.70 xG per match
#6/12
Attack (xG per match) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FC Sion 2.31
#2 Young Boys 2.28
#3 Grasshopper Club Zürich 2.01
#4 FC Luzern 1.95
#5 FC St. Gallen 1879 1.95
#6 FC Lugano 1.70
#7 FC Vaduz 1.66
#8 FC Thun 1.53
#9 Servette FC 1.41
#10 FC Zürich 1.38
#11 Basel 1.22
#12 FC Lausanne-Sport 0.85
League avg
1.69
Total
15.26 9 matches
Defence
1.26 xGA per match
#1/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Lugano 1.26
#2 FC Lausanne-Sport 1.37
#3 Basel 1.39
#4 Young Boys 1.41
#5 FC St. Gallen 1879 1.43
#6 FC Sion 1.48
#7 Servette FC 1.53
#8 FC Zürich 1.93
#9 FC Vaduz 2.00
#10 FC Luzern 2.02
#11 Grasshopper Club Zürich 2.18
#12 FC Thun 2.23
League avg
1.69
Total
11.31 9 matches
xG difference
+0.44 xGD per match
#4/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Young Boys +0.87
#2 FC Sion +0.82
#3 FC St. Gallen 1879 +0.51
#4 FC Lugano +0.44
#5 FC Luzern -0.08
#6 Servette FC -0.12
#7 Basel -0.17
#8 Grasshopper Club Zürich -0.18
#9 FC Vaduz -0.34
#10 FC Lausanne-Sport -0.52
#11 FC Zürich -0.55
#12 FC Thun -0.70
League avg
0.00
Total
+3.95 9 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.71 xPts per match
#4/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Young Boys 1.90
#2 FC Sion 1.90
#3 FC St. Gallen 1879 1.71
#4 FC Lugano 1.71
#5 FC Luzern 1.36
#6 Servette FC 1.30
#7 Grasshopper Club Zürich 1.29
#8 Basel 1.26
#9 FC Vaduz 1.18
#10 FC Zürich 1.12
#11 FC Thun 1.00
#12 FC Lausanne-Sport 0.94
League avg
1.39
Total
15.35 vs 25 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 9 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Lugano's underlying numbers are among the best in Swiss Super League. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.44 per match, driven by elite shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 27 goals are 11.74 above 15.26 xG, while 25 points are 9.65 above 15.35 xPts. After only 9 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
27 15.26 +11.74 scored 11.74 more than xG far outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 11.31 -4.31 conceded 4.31 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
25 15.35 +9.65 9.65 points above xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Lugano are 11.74 goals above their xG after 9 matches.

Goals
27
xG
15.26
Gap
+11.74
Sun 26/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 30/08 Thu 03/09 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Wed 16/09 Sun 20/09 -1 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +11 -0.03 +1.84 +4.38 +5.71 +5.42 +6.75 +7.24 +9.83 +11.74 -0.03 +1.87 +2.54 +1.33 -0.29 +1.33 +0.49 +2.59 +1.91 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Lugano: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 26/07 FC Vaduz 2 2.03 -0.03 -0.03
Sun 02/08 Grasshopper Club Zürich 4 2.13 +1.87 +1.84
Sun 09/08 FC Zürich 5 2.46 +2.54 +4.38
Sun 30/08 FC Sion 2 0.67 +1.33 +5.71
Thu 03/09 Servette FC 1 1.29 -0.29 +5.42
Sun 06/09 Basel 3 1.67 +1.33 +6.75
Sat 12/09 Young Boys 2 1.51 +0.49 +7.24
Wed 16/09 FC St. Gallen 1879 4 1.41 +2.59 +9.83
Sun 20/09 FC Lausanne-Sport 4 2.09 +1.91 +11.74

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

FC Lugano xG trend

Current form +0.33 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 7 of 9 matches. The worst was against FC Sion on Sun 30/08 (-1.15).

npxG · last 6
1.53
npxGA · last 6
1.20
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.34 Sun 26/07 +0.30 Sun 02/08 +1.50 Sun 09/08 -1.15 Sun 30/08 +0.62 Thu 03/09 +1.36 Sun 06/09 -0.87 Sat 12/09 +0.35 Wed 16/09 +1.68 Sun 20/09 +0.57 season avg
FC Lugano: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 26/07 FC Vaduz 2.05 0.71 +1.34 +1.34
Sun 02/08 Grasshopper Club Zürich 2.13 1.83 +0.30 +0.82
Sun 09/08 FC Zürich 2.46 0.96 +1.50 +1.05
Sun 30/08 FC Sion 0.67 1.82 -1.15 +0.50
Thu 03/09 Servette FC 1.64 1.02 +0.62 +0.52
Sun 06/09 Basel 1.67 0.31 +1.36 +0.66
Sat 12/09 Young Boys 1.54 2.41 -0.87 +0.44
Wed 16/09 FC St. Gallen 1879 1.49 1.14 +0.35 +0.43
Sun 20/09 FC Lausanne-Sport 2.19 0.51 +1.68 +0.57

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.76 npxG and 1.19 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 8 hardest of 12 in Swiss Super League
−0.02 xG vs league average
Over 9 league matches
Last 5
tied number 3 hardest of 12 in Swiss Super League
+0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 9 matches · tied number 8 hardest of 12

  1. FC Lausanne-Sport Away −0.37
  2. FC St. Gallen 1879 Home +0.47
  3. Young Boys Home +0.42
  4. Basel Away −0.28
  5. Servette FC Home +0.10
  6. FC Sion Away +0.34
  7. FC Zürich Home −0.27
  8. Grasshopper Club Zürich Away −0.32
  9. FC Vaduz Home −0.23

Last 5

+0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 3 hardest of 12

  1. FC Lausanne-Sport Away −0.37
  2. FC St. Gallen 1879 Home +0.47
  3. Young Boys Home +0.42
  4. Basel Away −0.28
  5. Servette FC Home +0.10

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Lugano shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. FC Lugano take 16.9 shots a match (league 15.3) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #3 in Swiss Super League for volume and #7 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 22% of their npxG (league 27%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.9 shots per match
#3/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC St. Gallen 1879 20.9
#2 Young Boys 19.1
#3 FC Lugano 16.9
#4 FC Luzern 16.8
#5 FC Sion 16.6
#6 FC Thun 15.7
#7 Grasshopper Club Zürich 15.4
#8 Servette FC 14.3
#9 FC Vaduz 14.1
#10 FC Zürich 12.6
#11 Basel 11.8
#12 FC Lausanne-Sport 9.1
League avg
15.3
Total
152 shots from 9 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#7/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FC Sion 0.13
#2 Grasshopper Club Zürich 0.12
#3 FC Vaduz 0.11
#4 Young Boys 0.11
#5 FC Luzern 0.11
#6 FC Zürich 0.11
#7 FC Lugano 0.10
#8 FC Thun 0.10
#9 FC Lausanne-Sport 0.09
#10 Basel 0.09
#11 FC St. Gallen 1879 0.09
#12 Servette FC 0.09
League avg
0.10
Total
15.84 npxG from 152 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.8 shots per match
#1/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Lugano 11.8
#2 FC St. Gallen 1879 12.7
#3 FC Sion 13.0
#4 FC Zürich 13.9
#5 Young Boys 14.0
#6 Servette FC 14.3
#7 Grasshopper Club Zürich 15.9
#8 FC Lausanne-Sport 16.2
#9 FC Thun 17.1
#10 Basel 17.6
#11 FC Vaduz 18.2
#12 FC Luzern 18.6
League avg
15.3
Total
106 shots allowed from 9 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#5/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Swiss Super League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Basel 0.08
#2 FC Lausanne-Sport 0.08
#3 Young Boys 0.10
#4 FC Sion 0.10
#5 FC Lugano 0.10
#6 FC Luzern 0.10
#7 Servette FC 0.10
#8 FC St. Gallen 1879 0.11
#9 FC Vaduz 0.11
#10 FC Thun 0.12
#11 Grasshopper Club Zürich 0.13
#12 FC Zürich 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
10.71 npxGA from 106 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 94 of 152 shots over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 71 of 106 shots allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 3.5 of 15.7 npxG over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

80% open play · 20% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 2.2 of 10.7 npxG allowed over 9 matches

Early-season figure: after 9 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Lugano home and away xG

FC Lugano per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 4
xG / match 1.74 1.64
xGA / match 1.37 1.12
xGD / match +0.37 +0.52
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.64 1.79

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Lugano match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.74
xGA / match
1.37
xGD / match
+0.37
Points
13 of 15
  1. Wed 16/09 FC St. Gallen 1879 H xG 1.41 xGA 1.14 xGD +0.27
  2. Sat 12/09 Young Boys H Weakest underlying xG 1.51 xGA 2.32 xGD -0.81
  3. Thu 03/09 Servette FC H xG 1.29 xGA 1.81 P xGD -0.52
  4. Sun 09/08 FC Zürich H Best underlying xG 2.46 xGA 0.87 xGD +1.59
  5. Sun 26/07 FC Vaduz H xG 2.03 xGA 0.71 xGD +1.32

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Lugano in Swiss Super League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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