FC Lugano 4:1 FC St. Gallen 1879: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Lugano Home 1.41 xG · 12 shots

FC St. Gallen 1879 Away 1.14 xG · 22 shots

41 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Lugano were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 4–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

4' Beckham Castro FC Lugano · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
14' Elias Pihlström FC Lugano · 0.74 xG chance 2–0
28' Elias Pihlström FC Lugano · 0.12 xG chance 3–0
36' Bekhruz Karimov FC Lugano · 0.05 xG chance 4–0
74' Andrin Hunziker FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.10 xG chance 4–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Lugano: 39% What happened
Draw: 29%
FC St. Gallen 1879: 32%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Lugano 1.54 1.41 -0.13

FC St. Gallen 1879 1.38 1.14 -0.24

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Lugano FC St. Gallen 1879

Shots: 12; 22
On target: 8; 5
Inside the box: 8; 13
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.41; 0.71
Set-piece xG: 0.06; 0.42
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.49 for FC Lugano and 1.14 for FC St. Gallen 1879.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 2.60 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Lugano
FC St. Gallen 1879
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Lugano

1.62 xG created 1.49 xGA

W 2.13 created, 1.83 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
W 2.46 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Zürich
W 0.67 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Sion
W 1.29 created, 1.81 conceded against Servette FC
W 1.67 created, 0.31 conceded against Basel
D 1.51 created, 2.32 conceded against Young Boys

FC St. Gallen 1879

2.13 xG created 1.53 xGA

W 2.17 created, 2.01 conceded against FC Vaduz
D 3.24 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Luzern
L 2.88 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Thun
L 1.80 created, 2.23 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
W 1.37 created, 0.90 conceded against Servette FC
L 1.29 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Sion

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Lugano: 0 won · 1 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Lugano against FC St. Gallen 1879 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	2.38	+25.7%	Lost
FC Lugano not to score	6.50	+21.9%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+15.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+14.3%	Lost
FC St. Gallen 1879 to win	3.30	+4.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+2.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lugano	39.4%	48.1%	−8.7 pp	2.54
Draw	28.9%	23.5%	+5.5 pp	3.46
FC St. Gallen 1879	31.7%	28.4%	+3.3 pp	3.15

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lugano to score	81.2%	85.4%	−4.2 pp	1.23
FC Lugano not to score	18.8%	14.6%	+4.2 pp	5.33
FC St. Gallen 1879 to score	77.7%	75.0%	+2.7 pp	1.29
FC St. Gallen 1879 not to score	22.3%	25.0%	−2.7 pp	4.48
Both teams to score	64.7%	64.5%	+0.2 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.3%	35.5%	−0.2 pp	2.83
FC Lugano 2+ goals	47.1%	60.8%	−13.7 pp	2.12
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	52.9%	39.2%	+13.7 pp	1.89
FC St. Gallen 1879 2+ goals	41.2%	41.1%	+0.1 pp	2.43
FC St. Gallen 1879 at most 1 goal	58.8%	58.9%	−0.1 pp	1.70
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	84.2%	−1.2 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	15.8%	+1.2 pp	5.87
Over 2.5 goals	57.7%	65.2%	−7.5 pp	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	42.3%	34.8%	+7.5 pp	2.36

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Lugano sample: 20 matches
FC St. Gallen 1879 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.