FC Lugano 2:2 Young Boys: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Lugano Home 1.51 xG · 17 shots

Young Boys Away 2.32 xG · 14 shots

22 Young Boys had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Lugano were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Young Boys's attack: 2.32 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.97).

Goals

2' Daniel Dos Santos FC Lugano · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
28' Samuel Essende Young Boys · 0.50 xG chance 1–1
45' Christian Fassnacht Young Boys · 0.77 xG chance 1–2
80' Albian Ajeti FC Lugano · 0.57 xG chance 2–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Lugano: 44%
Draw: 28% What happened
Young Boys: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Lugano 1.70 1.51 -0.19

Young Boys 1.35 2.32 +0.97

Young Boys produced 0.97 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Lugano Young Boys

Shots: 17; 14
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 10; 11
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.17
Open play xG: 1.19; 2.12
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.31
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.54 for FC Lugano and 2.41 for Young Boys.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.93 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Lugano
Young Boys
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Lugano

1.71 xG created 1.23 xGA

W 2.03 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Vaduz
W 2.13 created, 1.83 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
W 2.46 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Zürich
W 0.67 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Sion
W 1.29 created, 1.81 conceded against Servette FC
W 1.67 created, 0.31 conceded against Basel

Young Boys

2.22 xG created 1.50 xGA

W 3.38 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Thun
D 1.09 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 2.19 created, 1.64 conceded against FC Vaduz
D 1.77 created, 1.28 conceded against Basel
W 1.52 created, 1.71 conceded against FC Zürich
D 3.36 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Luzern

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Lugano: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Lugano against Young Boys before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.10	+21.2%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+8.1%	Won
Young Boys at most 1 goal	1.80	+7.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+6.3%	Lost
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	2.20	+4.3%	Lost
Young Boys not to score	4.50	+3.7%	Lost
Both teams not to score	3.00	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lugano	44.3%	42.0%	+2.2 pp	2.26
Draw	27.7%	24.2%	+3.5 pp	3.61
Young Boys	28.0%	33.8%	−5.7 pp	3.57

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lugano to score	84.3%	84.2%	+0.1 pp	1.19
FC Lugano not to score	15.7%	15.8%	−0.1 pp	6.36
Young Boys to score	77.0%	79.2%	−2.2 pp	1.30
Young Boys not to score	23.0%	20.8%	+2.2 pp	4.34
Both teams to score	66.4%	68.7%	−2.4 pp	1.51
Both teams not to score	33.6%	31.3%	+2.4 pp	2.97
FC Lugano 2+ goals	52.6%	57.7%	−5.1 pp	1.90
FC Lugano at most 1 goal	47.4%	42.3%	+5.1 pp	2.11
Young Boys 2+ goals	40.2%	48.5%	−8.3 pp	2.49
Young Boys at most 1 goal	59.8%	51.5%	+8.3 pp	1.67
Over 1.5 goals	84.8%	86.4%	−1.6 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.2%	13.6%	+1.6 pp	6.59
Over 2.5 goals	60.9%	69.4%	−8.5 pp	1.64
Under 2.5 goals	39.1%	30.6%	+8.5 pp	2.56

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Lugano sample: 20 matches
Young Boys sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.