Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeYoung Boys 3:3 FC Luzern
Young Boys were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was Young Boys's attack: 3.36 xG against 1.94 projected (+1.42). FC Luzern produced 2.19 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.75).
Goals
- 14' Samuel Essende Young Boys · 0.16 xG chance 1–0
- 47' Andrejs Cigaņiks FC Luzern · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
- 49' Andrejs Cigaņiks FC Luzern · 0.62 xG chance 1–2
- 52' Samuel Essende Young Boys · 0.07 xG chance 2–2
- 65' Matteo Di Giusto (pen.) FC Luzern · 0.82 xG chance 2–3
- 88' Mamadou Kaly Sene Young Boys · 0.70 xG chance 3–3
The model against the result
- Young Boys
- 48%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- FC Luzern
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Young Boys produced 1.42 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 28
- 17
- On target
- 10
- 7
- Inside the box
- 18
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 2.71
- 1.45
- Set-piece xG
- 0.51
- 0.00
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.25 for Young Boys and 1.40 for FC Luzern.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
45 shots · 5.49 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Young Boys
- FC Luzern
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.08 xG created 1.41 xGA
1.53 xG created 1.86 xGA
- L 2.53 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Thun
- L 0.51 created, 2.83 conceded against FC Sion
- D 1.51 created, 3.24 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
- W 0.98 created, 0.41 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
- D 1.23 created, 1.64 conceded against Servette FC
- W 2.42 created, 1.10 conceded against FC Vaduz
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Luzern to win | 5.75 | +50.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | +29.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +21.5% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.00 | +15.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Boys | 48.3% | 64.2% | −15.9 pp | 2.07 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 19.6% | +6.0 pp | 3.91 |
| FC Luzern | 26.1% | 16.2% | +9.9 pp | 3.83 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 70.5% | 68.7% | +1.7 pp | 1.42 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.5% | 31.3% | −1.7 pp | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | 90.4% | −2.0 pp | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.6% | 9.6% | +2.0 pp | 8.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% | 76.2% | −8.5 pp | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.3% | 23.8% | +8.5 pp | 3.10 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Young Boys sample
- 20 matches
- FC Luzern sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.