FC Luzern 2:1 FC Vaduz: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Luzern Home 2.42 xG · 23 shots

FC Vaduz Away 1.10 xG · 9 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Luzern were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 52%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Vaduz's attack: 1.10 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.35). FC Luzern produced 2.42 xG against 2.12 projected (+0.30).

Goals

46' Julian Stark FC Vaduz · 0.53 xG chance 0–1
59' Rúben Dantas FC Luzern · 0.03 xG chance 1–1
90' Nando Toggenburger FC Luzern · 0.13 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Luzern: 52% What happened
Draw: 24%
FC Vaduz: 24%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Luzern 2.12 2.42 +0.30

FC Vaduz 1.45 1.10 -0.35

FC Vaduz produced 0.35 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Luzern FC Vaduz

Shots: 23; 9
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 12; 7
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.12
Open play xG: 1.84; 0.70
Set-piece xG: 0.63; 0.41
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.47 for FC Luzern and 1.10 for FC Vaduz.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 3.58 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Luzern
FC Vaduz
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Luzern

1.52 xG created 1.76 xGA

W 2.33 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Winterthur
L 2.53 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Thun
L 0.51 created, 2.83 conceded against FC Sion
D 1.51 created, 3.24 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 0.98 created, 0.41 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
D 1.23 created, 1.64 conceded against Servette FC

FC Vaduz

1.68 xG created 2.44 xGA

L 0.71 created, 2.03 conceded against FC Lugano
L 2.01 created, 2.17 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
L 1.75 created, 2.81 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.64 created, 2.19 conceded against Young Boys
W 2.31 created, 2.99 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Luzern against FC Vaduz before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Vaduz to win	4.50	+6.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.40	+1.3%	Won
Draw	4.20	+1.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Luzern	52.4%	56.8%	−4.4 pp	1.91
Draw	24.0%	22.3%	+1.7 pp	4.16
FC Vaduz	23.6%	20.8%	+2.7 pp	4.25

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Luzern to score	90.0%	88.1%	+1.9 pp	1.11
FC Luzern not to score	10.0%	11.9%	−1.9 pp	10.01
FC Vaduz to score	79.1%	75.0%	+4.1 pp	1.26
FC Vaduz not to score	20.9%	25.0%	−4.1 pp	4.79
Both teams to score	72.4%	66.3%	+6.1 pp	1.38
Both teams not to score	27.6%	33.7%	−6.1 pp	3.62
FC Luzern 2+ goals	65.0%	64.5%	+0.5 pp	1.54
FC Luzern at most 1 goal	35.0%	35.5%	−0.5 pp	2.86
FC Vaduz 2+ goals	43.7%	41.1%	+2.6 pp	2.29
FC Vaduz at most 1 goal	56.3%	58.9%	−2.6 pp	1.78
Over 1.5 goals	90.3%	88.1%	+2.2 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	9.7%	11.9%	−2.2 pp	10.31
Over 2.5 goals	71.5%	71.8%	−0.3 pp	1.40
Under 2.5 goals	28.5%	28.2%	+0.3 pp	3.51

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Luzern sample: 20 matches
FC Vaduz sample: 5 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Vaduz has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.