FC Luzern 2:4 Basel: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Luzern Home 1.62 xG · 19 shots

Basel Away 1.93 xG · 17 shots

24 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Luzern were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. Basel won 4–2. The biggest difference was Basel's attack: 1.93 xG against 1.20 projected (+0.73).

Goals

1' Oscar Kabwit FC Luzern · 0.23 xG chance 1–0
4' Žan Celar Basel · 0.74 xG chance 1–1
42' Philip Otele Basel · 0.22 xG chance 1–2
56' Xherdan Shaqiri Basel · 0.10 xG chance 1–3
66' Xherdan Shaqiri Basel · 0.14 xG chance 1–4
84' Lars Villiger FC Luzern · 0.11 xG chance 2–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Luzern: 49%
Draw: 28%
Basel: 24% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Luzern 1.74 1.62 -0.12

Basel 1.20 1.93 +0.73

Basel produced 0.73 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Luzern Basel

Shots: 19; 17
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 12; 12
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.63; 1.52
Set-piece xG: 0.98; 0.36
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.61 for FC Luzern and 1.93 for Basel.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.49 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Luzern
Basel
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Luzern

1.47 xG created 2.10 xGA

L 0.51 created, 2.83 conceded against FC Sion
D 1.51 created, 3.24 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 0.98 created, 0.41 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
D 1.23 created, 1.64 conceded against Servette FC
W 2.42 created, 1.10 conceded against FC Vaduz
D 2.19 created, 3.36 conceded against Young Boys

Basel

1.04 xG created 1.29 xGA

L 0.98 created, 0.52 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 1.09 created, 0.64 conceded against FC Thun
W 1.64 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Zürich
D 1.28 created, 1.77 conceded against Young Boys
L 0.94 created, 1.80 conceded against FC Sion
L 0.31 created, 1.67 conceded against FC Lugano

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Luzern: 2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Luzern against Basel before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Basel not to score	4.33	+18.6%	Lost
Basel at most 1 goal	1.80	+18.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+13.7%	Lost
Both teams not to score	3.00	+10.8%	Lost
Draw	3.75	+3.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+2.2%	Lost
FC Luzern at most 1 goal	2.20	+2.0%	Lost
FC Luzern to win	2.05	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Luzern	48.8%	45.7%	+3.1 pp	2.05
Draw	27.6%	25.0%	+2.6 pp	3.62
Basel	23.5%	29.3%	−5.7 pp	4.25

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Luzern to score	84.7%	84.2%	+0.5 pp	1.18
FC Luzern not to score	15.3%	15.8%	−0.5 pp	6.54
Basel to score	72.6%	78.3%	−5.7 pp	1.38
Basel not to score	27.4%	21.7%	+5.7 pp	3.65
Both teams to score	63.1%	68.7%	−5.7 pp	1.59
Both teams not to score	36.9%	31.3%	+5.7 pp	2.71
FC Luzern 2+ goals	53.6%	57.7%	−4.0 pp	1.86
FC Luzern at most 1 goal	46.4%	42.3%	+4.0 pp	2.16
Basel 2+ goals	34.1%	48.5%	−14.4 pp	2.93
Basel at most 1 goal	65.9%	51.5%	+14.4 pp	1.52
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	84.2%	−1.2 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	15.8%	+1.2 pp	5.87
Over 2.5 goals	57.9%	65.2%	−7.3 pp	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	42.1%	34.8%	+7.3 pp	2.38

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Luzern sample: 20 matches
Basel sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.