FC Zürich 2:1 FC Vaduz: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Zürich Home 1.18 xG · 17 shots

FC Vaduz Away 1.03 xG · 11 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

FC Zürich were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Vaduz's attack: 1.03 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.45). FC Zürich produced 1.18 xG against 1.59 projected (−0.41).

Goals

13' Marcel Monsberger FC Vaduz · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
55' Philippe Keny FC Zürich · 0.40 xG chance 1–1
90' Umeh Emmanuel FC Zürich · 0.04 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Zürich: 39% What happened
Draw: 28%
FC Vaduz: 33%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Zürich 1.59 1.18 -0.41

FC Vaduz 1.48 1.03 -0.45

FC Vaduz produced 0.45 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Zürich FC Vaduz

Shots: 17; 11
On target: 6; 3
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.82; 0.93
Set-piece xG: 0.38; 0.09
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.18 for FC Zürich and 1.03 for FC Vaduz.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.22 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Zürich
FC Vaduz
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Zürich

1.32 xG created 2.07 xGA

W 1.48 created, 1.53 conceded against Servette FC
L 0.87 created, 2.46 conceded against FC Lugano
L 1.35 created, 1.64 conceded against Basel
W 1.71 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
L 1.71 created, 1.52 conceded against Young Boys
D 0.77 created, 4.16 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich

FC Vaduz

1.74 xG created 2.18 xGA

L 2.01 created, 2.17 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
L 1.75 created, 2.81 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.64 created, 2.19 conceded against Young Boys
W 2.31 created, 2.99 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
L 1.10 created, 2.42 conceded against FC Luzern
W 1.65 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Zürich against FC Vaduz before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.00	+16.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+5.0%	Lost
FC Zürich at most 1 goal	2.00	+2.4%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+0.9%	Lost
FC Vaduz at most 1 goal	1.83	+0.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Zürich	38.5%	36.9%	+1.6 pp	2.60
Draw	28.0%	26.2%	+1.9 pp	3.57
FC Vaduz	33.5%	36.9%	−3.5 pp	2.99

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Zürich to score	82.1%	82.8%	−0.7 pp	1.22
FC Zürich not to score	17.9%	17.2%	+0.7 pp	5.59
FC Vaduz to score	79.9%	79.2%	+0.7 pp	1.25
FC Vaduz not to score	20.1%	20.8%	−0.7 pp	4.98
Both teams to score	67.2%	68.7%	−1.6 pp	1.49
Both teams not to score	32.8%	31.3%	+1.6 pp	3.05
FC Zürich 2+ goals	48.8%	53.7%	−4.9 pp	2.05
FC Zürich at most 1 goal	51.2%	46.3%	+4.9 pp	1.95
FC Vaduz 2+ goals	45.0%	50.0%	−5.0 pp	2.22
FC Vaduz at most 1 goal	55.0%	50.0%	+5.0 pp	1.82
Over 1.5 goals	85.0%	86.7%	−1.7 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.0%	13.3%	+1.7 pp	6.66
Over 2.5 goals	61.3%	69.2%	−8.0 pp	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	38.7%	30.8%	+8.0 pp	2.58

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Zürich sample: 20 matches
FC Vaduz sample: 7 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Vaduz has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.