Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offBukovyna Chernivtsi – FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- 48%
- Draw
- 24%
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 28%
| Bukovyna Chernivtsi | Draw | FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.08 | 4.13 | 3.61 |
- Total goals
- 3.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Both teams to score
- 75%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bukovyna Chernivtsi
48% Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 14th
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi attack v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 7th
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi defence v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.38 vs -0.76
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.10 – 1.62
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.86 · 6th | 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.01 · 12th | 2.32 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.14 · 8th | -0.96 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.38 · 8th | 0.83 · 13th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.38 | -0.76 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet
- 17%
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- Both teams to score: no
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:1
- 9.5%
- 2:2
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi sample
- 7 matches
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Bukovyna Chernivtsi has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.