Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 13h to kick-offPolissya Zhytomyr – Dynamo Kyiv
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 37%
- Draw
- 31%
- Dynamo Kyiv
- 32%
| Polissya Zhytomyr | Draw | Dynamo Kyiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.67 | 3.24 | 3.15 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Polissya Zhytomyr
37% Polissya Zhytomyr to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 4th
- Polissya Zhytomyr attack v Dynamo Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 3rd
- Polissya Zhytomyr defence v Dynamo Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.51 vs +0.87
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.37 – 1.26
- Polissya Zhytomyr v Dynamo Kyiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Polissya Zhytomyr | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.19 · 2nd | 1.81 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.68 · 1st | 0.94 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.51 · 2nd | +0.87 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.29 · 1st | 2.02 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.51 | +0.87 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Polissya Zhytomyr clean sheet
- 25%
- Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Dynamo Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Polissya Zhytomyr
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Dynamo Kyiv
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.