Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:00
Kicked offVeres Rivne – Kudrivka
Model updated 12 September, 14:53 Best odds updated 12 September, 14:52
What the model expects
- Veres Rivne
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Kudrivka
- 28%
| Veres Rivne | Draw | Kudrivka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.39 | 3.33 | 3.56 |
- Total goals
- 2.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Veres Rivne
- Model
- 41.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 43.4%
- Probability gap
- −1.6 pp
- Edge
- −14.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.39
- Market odds
- 2.05 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.51
- Bookmaker margin
- 12.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.7%
- Probability gap
- +1.3 pp
- Edge
- −6.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.33
- Market odds
- 3.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.50
- Bookmaker margin
- 12.3%
-
Kudrivka
- Model
- 28.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.8%
- Probability gap
- +0.3 pp
- Edge
- −10.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.56
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 12.3%
Outcomes with value
Kudrivka 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Kudrivka to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Veres Rivne to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Kudrivka 2+ goals
Model 34.5% vs. bookmaker 27.7%, margin removed.
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Veres Rivne
42% Veres Rivne to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 16th
- Veres Rivne attack v Kudrivka defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 15th
- Veres Rivne defence v Kudrivka attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.09 vs -1.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 1.21
- Veres Rivne v Kudrivka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Veres Rivne | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 0.94 · 12th | 0.86 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.06 · 13th | 2.50 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) -1.13 · 14th | -1.65 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.85 · 12th | 0.54 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -1.09 | -1.51 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Veres Rivne
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Kudrivka
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 14:53
- Odds updated
- 21 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.