Friday, 09/10/2026 at 14:30
1d 13h to kick-offVeres Rivne – Shakhtar Donetsk
Model updated 8 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 7 October, 15:00
What the model expects
- Veres Rivne
- 16%
- Draw
- 27%
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 57%
| Veres Rivne | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 6.43 | 3.65 | 1.75 |
- Total goals
- 2.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 5 outcomes.
-
Veres Rivne
- Model
- 15.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 9.2%
- Probability gap
- +6.3 pp
- Edge
- +47.8%
- Fair odds
- 6.43
- Market odds
- 9.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.75
- Bookmaker margin
- 13.9%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 17.6%
- Probability gap
- +9.8 pp
- Edge
- +36.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.65
- Market odds
- 5.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.84
- Bookmaker margin
- 13.9%
-
Shakhtar Donetsk
- Model
- 57.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 73.2%
- Probability gap
- −16.1 pp
- Edge
- −31.5%
- Fair odds
- 1.75
- Market odds
- 1.20 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.84
- Bookmaker margin
- 13.9%
Outcomes with value
Veres Rivne to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Veres Rivne to win
Model 15.6% vs. bookmaker 9.2%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Shakhtar Donetsk
57% Shakhtar Donetsk to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 13th
- Shakhtar Donetsk attack v Veres Rivne defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 12th
- Shakhtar Donetsk defence v Veres Rivne attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.96 vs -1.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.86 – 1.71
- Veres Rivne v Shakhtar Donetsk
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Veres Rivne | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.94 · 12th | (better) 1.88 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.06 · 13th | (better) 0.92 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -1.13 · 14th | (better) +0.96 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.85 · 12th | (better) 2.01 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.10 | (better) +0.96 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet
- 40%
- Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 0:2
- 11.5%
- 1:2
- 11.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Veres Rivne
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Shakhtar Donetsk
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 08/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 10 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.