Friday, 09/10/2026 at 14:30
4d 9h to kick-offVeres Rivne – Shakhtar Donetsk
Model updated 5 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Veres Rivne
- 16%
- Draw
- 27%
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- 57%
| Veres Rivne | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 6.43 | 3.65 | 1.75 |
- Total goals
- 2.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Shakhtar Donetsk
57% Shakhtar Donetsk to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 13th
- Shakhtar Donetsk attack v Veres Rivne defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 12th
- Shakhtar Donetsk defence v Veres Rivne attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.96 vs -1.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.86 – 1.71
- Veres Rivne v Shakhtar Donetsk
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Veres Rivne | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.94 · 12th | (better) 1.88 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.06 · 13th | (better) 0.92 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -1.13 · 14th | (better) +0.96 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.85 · 12th | (better) 2.01 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.10 | (better) +0.96 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet
- 40%
- Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 0:2
- 11.5%
- 1:2
- 11.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Shakhtar Donetsk sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Veres Rivne
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Shakhtar Donetsk
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.