FC Lahti 1:1 FF Jaro: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Veikkausliiga

FC Lahti Home 1.74 xG

FF Jaro Away 1.49 xG

11 FC Lahti had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Lahti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FF Jaro's attack: 1.49 xG against 1.13 projected (+0.36).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Lahti: 53%
Draw: 26% What happened
FF Jaro: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Lahti 1.84 1.74 -0.10

FF Jaro 1.13 1.49 +0.36

FF Jaro produced 0.36 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Lahti FF Jaro

Shots: 20; 12
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 11; 6
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Lahti

1.74 xG created 1.67 xGA

W 1.89 created, 0.42 conceded against FF Jaro
D 1.78 created, 3.02 conceded against Inter Turku
L 0.71 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
W 2.54 created, 2.19 conceded against SJK
W 2.06 created, 1.15 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 1.47 created, 2.09 conceded against Ilves

FF Jaro

1.34 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.42 created, 1.89 conceded against FC Lahti
L 2.97 created, 1.98 conceded against VPS
L 0.91 created, 1.87 conceded against HJK
L 0.93 created, 0.68 conceded against AC Oulu
L 2.22 created, 1.15 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 0.58 created, 1.85 conceded against Ilves

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Lahti: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Lahti against FF Jaro before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.75	+9.0%	Won
FF Jaro to win	5.25	+6.7%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+2.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+2.0%	Won
Draw	3.80	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Lahti	53.2%	58.4%	−5.2 pp	1.88
Draw	26.5%	24.1%	+2.3 pp	3.78
FF Jaro	20.3%	17.5%	+2.8 pp	4.92

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.3%	53.3%	+9.0 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.7%	46.7%	−9.0 pp	2.65
Over 1.5 goals	83.4%	76.6%	+6.8 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.6%	23.4%	−6.8 pp	6.04
Over 2.5 goals	58.7%	53.9%	+4.8 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.3%	46.1%	−4.8 pp	2.42

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Lahti sample: 20 matches
FF Jaro sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.