IF Gnistan 1:1 HJK: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

IF Gnistan Home 1.54 xG

HJK Away 2.36 xG

11 HJK had the better chances, but it finished level

HJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was HJK's attack: 2.36 xG against 1.54 projected (+0.82).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Gnistan: 34%
Draw: 29% What happened
HJK: 38%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IF Gnistan 1.46 1.54 +0.08

HJK 1.54 2.36 +0.82

HJK produced 0.82 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IF Gnistan HJK

Shots: 14; 19
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 11; 12
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Gnistan

1.62 xG created 1.85 xGA

W 1.33 created, 1.19 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.78 created, 3.74 conceded against Inter Turku
L 2.27 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
D 1.02 created, 2.63 conceded against SJK
W 1.40 created, 1.43 conceded against HJK
W 1.94 created, 0.95 conceded against AC Oulu

HJK

1.67 xG created 0.86 xGA

W 1.66 created, 0.22 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.87 created, 0.91 conceded against FF Jaro
L 1.43 created, 1.40 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 2.61 created, 0.72 conceded against Ilves
W 1.22 created, 0.48 conceded against Inter Turku
D 1.24 created, 1.45 conceded against KuPS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Gnistan: 2 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Gnistan against HJK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
IF Gnistan to win	4.20	+41.8%	Lost
HJK not to score	6.50	+22.3%	Lost
IF Gnistan 2+ goals	2.75	+20.9%	Lost
HJK at most 1 goal	2.20	+16.6%	Won
Draw	3.90	+11.3%	Won
IF Gnistan to score	1.36	+8.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Gnistan	33.8%	22.0%	+11.8 pp	2.96
Draw	28.5%	23.7%	+4.9 pp	3.50
HJK	37.7%	54.3%	−16.6 pp	2.65

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Gnistan to score	79.3%	68.7%	+10.5 pp	1.26
IF Gnistan not to score	20.7%	31.3%	−10.5 pp	4.83
HJK to score	81.2%	85.4%	−4.2 pp	1.23
HJK not to score	18.8%	14.6%	+4.2 pp	5.32
Both teams to score	65.9%	62.5%	+3.4 pp	1.52
Both teams not to score	34.1%	37.5%	−3.4 pp	2.94
IF Gnistan 2+ goals	44.0%	33.7%	+10.2 pp	2.27
IF Gnistan at most 1 goal	56.0%	66.3%	−10.2 pp	1.78
HJK 2+ goals	47.0%	57.7%	−10.7 pp	2.13
HJK at most 1 goal	53.0%	42.3%	+10.7 pp	1.89
Over 1.5 goals	83.9%	81.4%	+2.6 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.1%	18.6%	−2.6 pp	6.23
Over 2.5 goals	59.4%	60.8%	−1.4 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.6%	39.2%	+1.4 pp	2.46

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Gnistan sample: 20 matches
HJK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.