xgEdge

Expected goals

HJK expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Veikkausliiga · after 21 matches · updated 1 Oct

HJK's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

HJK xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.77 xG per match
#4/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 KuPS 1.96
#2 FC Lahti 1.80
#3 Inter Turku 1.78
#4 HJK 1.77
#5 Ilves 1.72
#6 SJK 1.71
#7 IF Gnistan 1.61
#8 VPS 1.56
#9 TPS 1.50
#10 FF Jaro 1.21
#11 AC Oulu 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.10
League avg
1.57
Total
37.11 21 matches
Defence
1.32 xGA per match
#3/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 0.93
#2 KuPS 1.26
#3 HJK 1.32
#4 FC Lahti 1.42
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 VPS 1.44
#7 AC Oulu 1.58
#8 TPS 1.58
#9 SJK 1.67
#10 FF Jaro 1.71
#11 Ilves 1.94
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.50
League avg
1.57
Total
27.68 21 matches
xG difference
+0.45 xGD per match
#3/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.86
#2 KuPS +0.70
#3 HJK +0.45
#4 FC Lahti +0.38
#5 IF Gnistan +0.18
#6 VPS +0.12
#7 SJK +0.04
#8 TPS -0.08
#9 Ilves -0.21
#10 AC Oulu -0.37
#11 FF Jaro -0.50
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.41
League avg
0.00
Total
+9.43 21 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.74 xPts per match
#3/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.96
#2 KuPS 1.78
#3 HJK 1.74
#4 FC Lahti 1.51
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 SJK 1.42
#7 VPS 1.36
#8 Ilves 1.35
#9 TPS 1.32
#10 AC Oulu 1.13
#11 FF Jaro 1.05
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.69
League avg
1.39
Total
36.51 vs 43 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 21 of 25 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

HJK's underlying numbers are among the best in Veikkausliiga. They rank #3 for xG difference at +0.45 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 36 goals are 1.11 below 37.11 xG, while 36 points are 0.51 below 36.51 xPts — both over the 21 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.32 xG from penalties
36 37.11 -1.11 scored 1.11 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
26 27.68 -1.68 conceded 1.68 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
36 36.51 -0.51 0.51 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

HJK are 1.11 goals below their xG after 21 matches. The gap was widest at -1.72, against AC Oulu on Sat 11/04.

Goals
36
xG
37.11
Gap
-1.11
Sat 04/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 18/04 Sun 26/04 Wed 29/04 Sat 16/05 Sat 13/06 Wed 17/06 Tue 23/06 Sat 27/06 Sat 11/07 Sat 18/07 Sun 26/07 Mon 03/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Mon 31/08 Wed 09/09 Sun 13/09 Fri 18/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 -0.38 -1.72 +0.27 +0.49 +0.78 +0.66 +3.73 +5.67 +5.94 +4.62 +3.77 +3.56 +2.20 +0.28 -0.38 +0.75 +1.32 +0.71 +1.49 +0.25 -1.11 -0.38 -1.34 +1.99 +0.22 +0.29 -0.12 +3.07 +1.94 +0.27 -1.32 -0.85 -0.21 -1.36 -1.92 -0.66 +1.13 +0.57 -0.61 +0.78 -1.24 -1.36 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
HJK: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 04/04 SJK 3 3.38 -0.38 -0.38
Sat 11/04 AC Oulu 0 1.34 -1.34 -1.72
Sat 18/04 IF Gnistan 3 1.01 +1.99 +0.27
Sun 26/04 KuPS 1 0.78 +0.22 +0.49
Wed 29/04 Inter Turku 1 0.71 +0.29 +0.78
Sat 16/05 Ilves 2 2.12 -0.12 +0.66
Sat 13/06 FF Jaro 5 1.93 +3.07 +3.73
Wed 17/06 Inter Turku 3 1.06 +1.94 +5.67
Tue 23/06 IFK Mariehamn 4 3.73 +0.27 +5.94
Sat 27/06 KuPS 0 1.32 -1.32 +4.62
Sat 11/07 FC Lahti 0 0.85 -0.85 +3.77
Sat 18/07 VPS 2 2.21 -0.21 +3.56
Sun 26/07 TPS 1 2.36 -1.36 +2.20
Mon 03/08 SJK 0 1.92 -1.92 +0.28
Sun 09/08 AC Oulu 1 1.66 -0.66 -0.38
Sun 16/08 FF Jaro 3 1.87 +1.13 +0.75
Sun 23/08 IF Gnistan 2 1.43 +0.57 +1.32
Mon 31/08 Ilves 2 2.61 -0.61 +0.71
Wed 09/09 Inter Turku 2 1.22 +0.78 +1.49
Sun 13/09 KuPS 0 1.24 -1.24 +0.25
Fri 18/09 IF Gnistan 1 2.36 -1.36 -1.11

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

HJK xG trend

Current form +0.58 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 17 of 21 matches. The worst was against KuPS on Sat 27/06 (-3.60).

npxG · last 6
1.66
npxGA · last 6
1.09
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.47 Sat 04/04 +0.43 Sat 11/04 +0.47 Sat 18/04 -2.11 Sun 26/04 -1.23 Wed 29/04 +0.92 Sat 16/05 +0.09 Sat 13/06 +0.11 Wed 17/06 +2.79 Tue 23/06 -3.60 Sat 27/06 +0.28 Sat 11/07 +0.81 Sat 18/07 +1.11 Sun 26/07 +0.51 Mon 03/08 +1.44 Sun 09/08 +0.96 Sun 16/08 +0.02 Sun 23/08 +1.12 Mon 31/08 +0.74 Wed 09/09 -0.21 Sun 13/09 +0.82 Fri 18/09 +0.38 season avg
HJK: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 04/04 SJK 3.38 0.91 +2.47 +2.47
Sat 11/04 AC Oulu 1.34 0.91 +0.43 +1.45
Sat 18/04 IF Gnistan 1.01 0.54 +0.47 +1.12
Sun 26/04 KuPS 0.78 2.89 -2.11 +0.31
Wed 29/04 Inter Turku 0.71 1.94 -1.23 +0.01
Sat 16/05 Ilves 2.12 1.20 +0.92 +0.16
Sat 13/06 FF Jaro 1.93 1.84 +0.09 +0.15
Wed 17/06 Inter Turku 1.26 1.15 +0.11 +0.14
Tue 23/06 IFK Mariehamn 3.73 0.94 +2.79 +0.44
Sat 27/06 KuPS 1.32 4.92 -3.60 +0.03
Sat 11/07 FC Lahti 0.85 0.57 +0.28 +0.06
Sat 18/07 VPS 1.45 0.64 +0.81 +0.12
Sun 26/07 TPS 2.36 1.25 +1.11 +0.20
Mon 03/08 SJK 1.92 1.41 +0.51 +0.22
Sun 09/08 AC Oulu 1.66 0.22 +1.44 +0.30
Sun 16/08 FF Jaro 1.87 0.91 +0.96 +0.34
Sun 23/08 IF Gnistan 1.43 1.41 +0.02 +0.32
Mon 31/08 Ilves 1.85 0.73 +1.12 +0.37
Wed 09/09 Inter Turku 1.22 0.48 +0.74 +0.39
Sun 13/09 KuPS 1.24 1.45 -0.21 +0.36
Fri 18/09 IF Gnistan 2.36 1.54 +0.82 +0.38

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.70 npxG and 1.33 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 25 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.19 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 25 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 12

  1. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  2. KuPS Away +0.50
  3. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  4. Ilves Away −0.22
  5. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  6. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  7. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  8. SJK Away +0.02
  9. TPS Home −0.08
  10. VPS Home +0.10
  11. FC Lahti Away +0.22
  12. KuPS Home +0.50
  13. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  14. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  15. FF Jaro Away −0.38
  16. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  17. VPS Away +0.10
  18. Ilves Home −0.22
  19. TPS Away −0.08
  20. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  21. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  22. KuPS Away +0.50
  23. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  24. AC Oulu Home −0.28
  25. SJK Home +0.02

Last 5

+0.19 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 12

  1. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  2. KuPS Away +0.50
  3. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  4. Ilves Away −0.22
  5. IF Gnistan Home +0.06

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

HJK shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. HJK take 12.6 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.14 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #5 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #2 for quality. 71% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.6 shots per match
#5/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 KuPS 15.2
#2 FC Lahti 13.3
#3 Inter Turku 13.1
#4 TPS 13.0
#5 HJK 12.6
#6 SJK 12.4
#7 IF Gnistan 11.8
#8 FF Jaro 11.6
#9 Ilves 11.5
#10 VPS 11.0
#11 AC Oulu 10.2
#12 IFK Mariehamn 8.9
League avg
12.0
Total
265 shots from 21 matches
Chance quality
0.14 npxG per shot
#2/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 HJK 0.14
#3 KuPS 0.13
#4 VPS 0.13
#5 Ilves 0.13
#6 Inter Turku 0.13
#7 IF Gnistan 0.13
#8 FC Lahti 0.13
#9 IFK Mariehamn 0.11
#10 TPS 0.11
#11 AC Oulu 0.10
#12 FF Jaro 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
35.79 npxG from 265 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.0 shots per match
#7/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Inter Turku 8.5
#2 KuPS 9.7
#3 FC Lahti 9.8
#4 VPS 11.4
#5 AC Oulu 11.4
#6 SJK 11.7
#7 HJK 12.0
#8 TPS 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 12.9
#10 FF Jaro 13.6
#11 Ilves 13.9
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.3
League avg
12.0
Total
253 shots allowed from 21 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#3/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Inter Turku 0.10
#2 IF Gnistan 0.10
#3 HJK 0.11
#4 TPS 0.11
#5 VPS 0.11
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 Ilves 0.13
#10 FC Lahti 0.13
#11 SJK 0.14
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
27.85 npxGA from 253 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

71% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 188 of 265 shots over 21 matches

Shots allowed, location

53% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 133 of 253 shots allowed over 21 matches

How the shot figures are made →

HJK home and away xG

HJK per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 12 10 with xG 13 11 with xG
xG / match 1.83 1.71
xGA / match 1.36 1.28
xGD / match +0.47 +0.43
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.81 1.67

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every HJK match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
25 21 with xG
xG / match
1.77
xGA / match
1.32
xGD / match
+0.45
Points
43 of 75
  1. Fri 18/09 IF Gnistan A xG 2.36 xGA 1.54 xGD +0.82
  2. Sun 13/09 KuPS A xG 1.24 xGA 1.45 xGD -0.21
  3. Wed 09/09 Inter Turku H xG 1.22 xGA 0.48 xGD +0.74
  4. Mon 31/08 Ilves A xG 2.61 P xGA 0.72 xGD +1.89
  5. Sun 23/08 IF Gnistan H xG 1.43 xGA 1.40 xGD +0.03
  6. Sun 16/08 FF Jaro H xG 1.87 xGA 0.91 xGD +0.96
  7. Sun 09/08 AC Oulu A xG 1.66 xGA 0.22 xGD +1.44
  8. Mon 03/08 SJK A xG 1.92 xGA 1.41 xGD +0.51
  9. Sun 26/07 TPS H xG 2.36 xGA 1.25 xGD +1.11
  10. Sat 18/07 VPS H xG 2.21 P xGA 0.64 xGD +1.57
  11. Sat 11/07 FC Lahti A xG 0.85 xGA 0.57 xGD +0.28
  12. Sat 27/06 KuPS H Weakest underlying xG 1.32 xGA 4.92 xGD -3.60
  13. Tue 23/06 IFK Mariehamn A Best underlying xG 3.73 xGA 0.94 xGD +2.79
  14. Wed 17/06 Inter Turku H xG 1.06 xGA 1.15 xGD -0.09
  15. Sat 13/06 FF Jaro A xG 1.93 xGA 1.84 xGD +0.09
  16. Sat 30/05 IFK Mariehamn H
  17. Fri 22/05 VPS A
  18. Sat 16/05 Ilves H xG 2.12 xGA 1.07 xGD +1.05
  19. Fri 08/05 TPS A
  20. Mon 04/05 FC Lahti H
  21. Wed 29/04 Inter Turku A xG 0.71 xGA 1.94 xGD -1.23
  22. Sun 26/04 KuPS A xG 0.78 xGA 2.89 xGD -2.11
  23. Sat 18/04 IF Gnistan A xG 1.01 xGA 0.53 xGD +0.48
  24. Sat 11/04 AC Oulu H xG 1.34 xGA 0.91 xGD +0.43
  25. Sat 04/04 SJK H xG 3.38 xGA 0.90 xGD +2.48

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.92. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

HJK in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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