xgEdge

Expected goals

IF Gnistan expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Veikkausliiga · after 21 matches · updated 1 Oct

IF Gnistan's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

IF Gnistan xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.61 xG per match
#7/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 KuPS 1.96
#2 FC Lahti 1.80
#3 Inter Turku 1.78
#4 HJK 1.77
#5 Ilves 1.72
#6 SJK 1.71
#7 IF Gnistan 1.61
#8 VPS 1.56
#9 TPS 1.50
#10 FF Jaro 1.21
#11 AC Oulu 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.10
League avg
1.57
Total
33.81 21 matches
Defence
1.43 xGA per match
#5/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 0.93
#2 KuPS 1.26
#3 HJK 1.32
#4 FC Lahti 1.42
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 VPS 1.44
#7 AC Oulu 1.58
#8 TPS 1.58
#9 SJK 1.67
#10 FF Jaro 1.71
#11 Ilves 1.94
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.50
League avg
1.57
Total
30.08 21 matches
xG difference
+0.18 xGD per match
#5/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.86
#2 KuPS +0.70
#3 HJK +0.45
#4 FC Lahti +0.38
#5 IF Gnistan +0.18
#6 VPS +0.12
#7 SJK +0.04
#8 TPS -0.08
#9 Ilves -0.21
#10 AC Oulu -0.37
#11 FF Jaro -0.50
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.41
League avg
0.00
Total
+3.73 21 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.43 xPts per match
#5/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.96
#2 KuPS 1.78
#3 HJK 1.74
#4 FC Lahti 1.51
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 SJK 1.42
#7 VPS 1.36
#8 Ilves 1.35
#9 TPS 1.32
#10 AC Oulu 1.13
#11 FF Jaro 1.05
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.69
League avg
1.39
Total
30.07 vs 41 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 21 of 25 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

IF Gnistan's underlying numbers sit close to the Veikkausliiga average. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.18 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 32 goals are 1.81 below 33.81 xG, while 33 points are 2.93 above 30.07 xPts — both over the 21 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.26 xG from penalties
32 33.81 -1.81 scored 1.81 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
26 30.08 -4.08 conceded 4.08 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
33 30.07 +2.93 2.93 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

IF Gnistan are 1.81 goals below their xG after 21 matches. The gap was widest at -3.91, against KuPS on Sat 01/08.

Goals
32
xG
33.81
Gap
-1.81
Sat 04/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 18/04 Fri 24/04 Tue 05/05 Sat 09/05 Sat 16/05 Sat 23/05 Sat 13/06 Wed 17/06 Tue 23/06 Sat 27/06 Sat 04/07 Sat 11/07 Sat 18/07 Sun 26/07 Sat 01/08 Fri 07/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 12/09 Fri 18/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -0.33 -1.27 -1.80 -1.68 -0.10 +0.27 +3.90 +3.13 +2.15 +0.72 +0.41 -1.03 -1.99 -2.53 -1.86 -1.64 -3.91 -2.93 -1.33 -1.27 -1.81 -0.33 -0.94 -0.53 +0.12 +1.58 +0.37 +3.63 -0.77 -0.98 -1.43 -0.31 -1.44 -0.96 -0.54 +0.67 +0.22 -2.27 +0.98 +1.60 +0.06 -0.54 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
IF Gnistan: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 04/04 AC Oulu 1 1.33 -0.33 -0.33
Sat 11/04 KuPS 0 0.94 -0.94 -1.27
Sat 18/04 HJK 0 0.53 -0.53 -1.80
Fri 24/04 TPS 1 0.88 +0.12 -1.68
Tue 05/05 Inter Turku 2 0.42 +1.58 -0.10
Sat 09/05 VPS 1 0.63 +0.37 +0.27
Sat 16/05 FF Jaro 5 1.37 +3.63 +3.90
Sat 23/05 Ilves 0 0.77 -0.77 +3.13
Sat 13/06 IFK Mariehamn 3 3.98 -0.98 +2.15
Wed 17/06 FC Lahti 1 2.43 -1.43 +0.72
Tue 23/06 FF Jaro 1 1.31 -0.31 +0.41
Sat 27/06 VPS 1 2.44 -1.44 -1.03
Sat 04/07 FC Lahti 0 0.96 -0.96 -1.99
Sat 11/07 IFK Mariehamn 4 4.54 -0.54 -2.53
Sat 18/07 AC Oulu 2 1.33 +0.67 -1.86
Sun 26/07 Inter Turku 2 1.78 +0.22 -1.64
Sat 01/08 KuPS 0 2.27 -2.27 -3.91
Fri 07/08 SJK 2 1.02 +0.98 -2.93
Sun 23/08 HJK 3 1.40 +1.60 -1.33
Sat 12/09 AC Oulu 2 1.94 +0.06 -1.27
Fri 18/09 HJK 1 1.54 -0.54 -1.81

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

IF Gnistan xG trend

Current form -0.51 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 13 of 21 matches. The worst was against Inter Turku on Sun 26/07 (-1.96).

npxG · last 6
1.41
npxGA · last 6
1.92
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +0.11 Sat 04/04 -1.27 Sat 11/04 -0.47 Sat 18/04 +0.33 Fri 24/04 -0.56 Tue 05/05 +0.33 Sat 09/05 +0.63 Sat 16/05 +0.05 Sat 23/05 +2.97 Sat 13/06 +0.72 Wed 17/06 +1.01 Tue 23/06 +1.16 Sat 27/06 -1.50 Sat 04/07 +3.18 Sat 11/07 +0.14 Sat 18/07 -1.96 Sun 26/07 +1.10 Sat 01/08 -1.61 Fri 07/08 -0.02 Sun 23/08 +0.23 Sat 12/09 -0.82 Fri 18/09 +0.18 season avg
IF Gnistan: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 04/04 AC Oulu 1.33 1.22 +0.11 +0.11
Sat 11/04 KuPS 0.94 2.21 -1.27 -0.58
Sat 18/04 HJK 0.54 1.01 -0.47 -0.54
Fri 24/04 TPS 0.88 0.55 +0.33 -0.32
Tue 05/05 Inter Turku 0.42 0.98 -0.56 -0.37
Sat 09/05 VPS 0.63 0.30 +0.33 -0.25
Sat 16/05 FF Jaro 1.37 0.74 +0.63 -0.13
Sat 23/05 Ilves 0.77 0.72 +0.05 -0.11
Sat 13/06 IFK Mariehamn 3.98 1.01 +2.97 +0.24
Wed 17/06 FC Lahti 2.43 1.71 +0.72 +0.28
Tue 23/06 FF Jaro 1.31 0.30 +1.01 +0.35
Sat 27/06 VPS 2.44 1.28 +1.16 +0.42
Sat 04/07 FC Lahti 0.96 2.46 -1.50 +0.27
Sat 11/07 IFK Mariehamn 3.78 0.60 +3.18 +0.48
Sat 18/07 AC Oulu 1.33 1.19 +0.14 +0.46
Sun 26/07 Inter Turku 1.02 2.98 -1.96 +0.30
Sat 01/08 KuPS 2.27 1.17 +1.10 +0.35
Fri 07/08 SJK 1.02 2.63 -1.61 +0.24
Sun 23/08 HJK 1.41 1.43 -0.02 +0.23
Sat 12/09 AC Oulu 1.18 0.95 +0.23 +0.23
Fri 18/09 HJK 1.54 2.36 -0.82 +0.18

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.50 npxG and 1.32 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 6 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 25 league matches
Last 5
number 3 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.14 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 25 matches · tied number 6 hardest of 12

  1. HJK Home +0.27
  2. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  3. KuPS Home +0.50
  4. TPS Home −0.08
  5. HJK Away +0.27
  6. Ilves Home −0.22
  7. SJK Away +0.02
  8. KuPS Home +0.50
  9. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  10. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  11. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  12. FC Lahti Away +0.22
  13. VPS Home +0.10
  14. FF Jaro Away −0.38
  15. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  16. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  17. SJK Home +0.02
  18. Ilves Away −0.22
  19. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  20. VPS Away +0.10
  21. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  22. TPS Away −0.08
  23. HJK Home +0.27
  24. KuPS Away +0.50
  25. AC Oulu Home −0.28

Last 5

+0.14 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 12

  1. HJK Home +0.27
  2. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  3. KuPS Home +0.50
  4. TPS Home −0.08
  5. HJK Away +0.27

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

IF Gnistan shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. IF Gnistan take 11.8 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #7 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #7 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.8 shots per match
#7/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 KuPS 15.2
#2 FC Lahti 13.3
#3 Inter Turku 13.1
#4 TPS 13.0
#5 HJK 12.6
#6 SJK 12.4
#7 IF Gnistan 11.8
#8 FF Jaro 11.6
#9 Ilves 11.5
#10 VPS 11.0
#11 AC Oulu 10.2
#12 IFK Mariehamn 8.9
League avg
12.0
Total
247 shots from 21 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#7/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 HJK 0.14
#3 KuPS 0.13
#4 VPS 0.13
#5 Ilves 0.13
#6 Inter Turku 0.13
#7 IF Gnistan 0.13
#8 FC Lahti 0.13
#9 IFK Mariehamn 0.11
#10 TPS 0.11
#11 AC Oulu 0.10
#12 FF Jaro 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
31.55 npxG from 247 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.9 shots per match
#9/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Inter Turku 8.5
#2 KuPS 9.7
#3 FC Lahti 9.8
#4 VPS 11.4
#5 AC Oulu 11.4
#6 SJK 11.7
#7 HJK 12.0
#8 TPS 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 12.9
#10 FF Jaro 13.6
#11 Ilves 13.9
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.3
League avg
12.0
Total
271 shots allowed from 21 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#2/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Inter Turku 0.10
#2 IF Gnistan 0.10
#3 HJK 0.11
#4 TPS 0.11
#5 VPS 0.11
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 Ilves 0.13
#10 FC Lahti 0.13
#11 SJK 0.14
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
27.80 npxGA from 271 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 154 of 247 shots over 21 matches

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 175 of 271 shots allowed over 21 matches

How the shot figures are made →

IF Gnistan home and away xG

IF Gnistan per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 13 9 with xG 12
xG / match 1.87 1.41
xGA / match 1.23 1.58
xGD / match +0.64 -0.17
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.66 1.26

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every IF Gnistan match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
12
xG / match
1.41
xGA / match
1.58
xGD / match
-0.17
Points
19 of 36
  1. Sat 12/09 AC Oulu A xG 1.94 P xGA 0.95 xGD +0.99
  2. Sun 23/08 HJK A xG 1.40 xGA 1.43 xGD -0.03
  3. Fri 07/08 SJK A xG 1.02 xGA 2.63 xGD -1.61
  4. Sun 26/07 Inter Turku A Against the chances xG 1.78 P xGA 3.74 P xGD -1.96
  5. Sat 18/07 AC Oulu A xG 1.33 xGA 1.19 xGD +0.14
  6. Sat 04/07 FC Lahti A xG 0.96 xGA 2.46 xGD -1.50
  7. Tue 23/06 FF Jaro A xG 1.31 xGA 0.30 xGD +1.01
  8. Sat 13/06 IFK Mariehamn A Best underlying xG 3.98 xGA 1.01 xGD +2.97
  9. Sat 23/05 Ilves A xG 0.77 xGA 1.48 P xGD -0.71
  10. Sat 09/05 VPS A xG 0.63 xGA 1.06 P xGD -0.43
  11. Fri 24/04 TPS A xG 0.88 xGA 0.55 xGD +0.33
  12. Sat 11/04 KuPS A xG 0.94 xGA 2.21 xGD -1.27

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.98. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

IF Gnistan in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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