Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 13:00
20d 9h to kick-offVPS – Inter Turku
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- VPS
- 27%
- Draw
- 31%
- Inter Turku
- 43%
| VPS | Draw | Inter Turku | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Inter Turku
43% Inter Turku to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Inter Turku attack v VPS defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 9th
- Inter Turku defence v VPS attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs -0.49
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.12 – 1.45
- VPS v Inter Turku
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | VPS | Inter Turku |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.56 · 8th | (better) 1.78 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.44 · 6th | (better) 0.93 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.12 · 6th | (better) +0.86 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.36 · 7th | (better) 1.96 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.49 | (better) +0.70 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Inter Turku clean sheet
- 29%
- Inter Turku 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 0:1
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- VPS sample
- 20 matches
- Inter Turku sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · VPS
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Inter Turku
- 12 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.