Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 14:00
7d 12h to kick-offInter Turku – KuPS
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Inter Turku
- 39%
- Draw
- 30%
- KuPS
- 31%
| Inter Turku | Draw | KuPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.55 | 3.36 | 3.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Inter Turku
39% Inter Turku to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 2nd
- Inter Turku attack v KuPS defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 1st
- Inter Turku defence v KuPS attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs -0.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.47 – 1.30
- Inter Turku v KuPS
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Inter Turku | KuPS |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.78 · 3rd | (better) 1.96 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.93 · 1st | 1.26 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.86 · 1st | +0.70 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.96 · 1st | 1.78 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.70 | -0.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Inter Turku clean sheet
- 25%
- Inter Turku 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Inter Turku sample
- 20 matches
- KuPS sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Inter Turku
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · KuPS
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.