Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 14:30
14d 13h to kick-offRed Bull Salzburg – SC Rheindorf Altach
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 64%
- Draw
- 23%
- SC Rheindorf Altach
- 13%
| Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | SC Rheindorf Altach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.56 | 4.30 | 7.87 |
- Total goals
- 2.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Red Bull Salzburg
64% Red Bull Salzburg to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 6th
- Red Bull Salzburg attack v SC Rheindorf Altach defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 9th
- Red Bull Salzburg defence v SC Rheindorf Altach attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.05 – 0.90
- Red Bull Salzburg v SC Rheindorf Altach
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Red Bull Salzburg | SC Rheindorf Altach |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.68 · 1st | 1.24 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.08 · 2nd | 1.33 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.60 · 2nd | -0.08 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.33 · 2nd | 1.42 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.30 | -0.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet
- 38%
- Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.8%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 11.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Red Bull Salzburg sample
- 20 matches
- SC Rheindorf Altach sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Red Bull Salzburg
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · SC Rheindorf Altach
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.