Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeSC Austria Lustenau 2:0 SC Rheindorf Altach
SC Austria Lustenau were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was SC Austria Lustenau's attack: 0.81 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.65).
Goals
- 36' Antonio Verinac SC Austria Lustenau · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
- 45' Dominik Weixelbraun SC Austria Lustenau · 0.18 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- SC Austria Lustenau
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 30%
- SC Rheindorf Altach
- 28%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
SC Austria Lustenau produced 0.65 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 11
- On target
- 2
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.77
- 0.47
- Set-piece xG
- 0.07
- 0.26
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.85 for SC Austria Lustenau and 0.73 for SC Rheindorf Altach.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.57 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Austria Lustenau
- SC Rheindorf Altach
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.31 xG created 2.02 xGA
- D 0.78 created, 2.92 conceded against SV Ried
- L 0.56 created, 1.65 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- W 3.13 created, 1.33 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- D 0.96 created, 2.12 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- L 0.93 created, 2.60 conceded against WSG Tirol
- L 1.48 created, 1.52 conceded against Austria Wien
1.27 xG created 1.42 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Austria Lustenau to win | 3.10 | +28.0% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +6.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Austria Lustenau | 41.3% | 30.4% | +10.9 pp | 2.42 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 26.9% | +3.4 pp | 3.30 |
| SC Rheindorf Altach | 28.4% | 42.8% | −14.4 pp | 3.52 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 57.7% | +1.8 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.6% | 42.3% | −1.8 pp | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | 75.0% | +3.5 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 25.0% | −3.5 pp | 4.66 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 52.6% | −1.8 pp | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 47.4% | +1.8 pp | 2.04 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Austria Lustenau sample
- 6 matches
- SC Rheindorf Altach sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- SC Austria Lustenau has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.