Borussia Dortmund 3:2 Hamburger SV: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 21/03/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund Home 6.20 xG · 24 shots

Hamburger SV Away 1.47 xG · 4 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

19' Philip Otele Hamburger SV · 0.51 xG chance 0–1
38' Albert Sambi Lokonga Hamburger SV · 0.66 xG chance 0–2
73' Ramy Bensebaini (pen.) Borussia Dortmund · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
78' Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund · 0.82 xG chance 2–2
84' Ramy Bensebaini (pen.) Borussia Dortmund · 0.82 xG chance 3–2

The shots behind it

Borussia Dortmund Hamburger SV

Shots: 24; 4
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 20; 3
xG per shot: 0.27; 0.37
Open play xG: 3.58; 1.49
Set-piece xG: 0.53; 0.00
Penalties: 3; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.02 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.47 for Hamburger SV.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 8.06 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Borussia Dortmund

1.68 xG created 1.45 xGA

W 1.27 created, 1.45 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 1.80 created, 1.52 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
D 1.39 created, 1.81 conceded against RB Leipzig
L 1.04 created, 2.05 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 1.95 created, 1.14 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 2.62 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Augsburg

Hamburger SV

1.08 xG created 1.89 xGA

W 1.82 created, 2.11 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
D 0.70 created, 1.53 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
L 0.55 created, 2.70 conceded against RB Leipzig
L 1.27 created, 1.93 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W 1.82 created, 1.84 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
D 0.32 created, 1.22 conceded against 1. FC Köln

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Borussia Dortmund: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Hamburger SV 1:1 Borussia Dortmund 08/11/2025 xG 0.57 – 1.03

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.