Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Hamburger SV – TSG Hoffenheim
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Hamburger SV
- 29%
- Draw
- 28%
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 43%
| Hamburger SV | Draw | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.42 | 3.63 | 2.31 |
- Total goals
- 3.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans TSG Hoffenheim
43% TSG Hoffenheim to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 14th
- TSG Hoffenheim attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 18th
- TSG Hoffenheim defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.41 – 1.71
- Hamburger SV v TSG Hoffenheim
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hamburger SV | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 1.83 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 1.70 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) +0.13 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 1.48 · 7th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.73 | (better) +0.23 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet
- 22%
- TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- TSG Hoffenheim sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · TSG Hoffenheim
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.