Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:30
6d 14h to kick-offTSG Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 61%
- Draw
- 23%
- Hamburger SV
- 16%
| TSG Hoffenheim | Draw | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.65 | 4.30 | 6.20 |
- Total goals
- 3.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
TSG Hoffenheim
- Model
- 60.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 65.5%
- Probability gap
- −4.9 pp
- Edge
- −13.9%
- Fair odds
- 1.65
- Market odds
- 1.42 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 23.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.6%
- Probability gap
- +3.6 pp
- Edge
- +10.3%
- Fair odds
- 4.30
- Market odds
- 4.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.52
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Hamburger SV
- Model
- 16.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 14.9%
- Probability gap
- +1.2 pp
- Edge
- +0.8%
- Fair odds
- 6.20
- Market odds
- 6.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.51
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
Outcomes with value
TSG Hoffenheim at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Hamburger SV to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Hamburger SV to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
TSG Hoffenheim at most 1 goal
Model 34.2% vs. bookmaker 31.3%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans TSG Hoffenheim
61% TSG Hoffenheim to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 14th
- TSG Hoffenheim attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 18th
- TSG Hoffenheim defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.15 – 1.12
- TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | TSG Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.83 · 9th from 4 matches | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.70 · 9th from 4 matches | 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.13 · 7th from 4 matches | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 7th from 4 matches | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.23 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet
- 29%
- TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 1:1
- 10.9%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- TSG Hoffenheim sample
- 20 matches
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · TSG Hoffenheim
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.