xgEdge

Expected goals

Derby County expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Championship · after 12 matches · updated 30 Oct

Derby County's attacking and defensive expected goals in Championship 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Derby County xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.97 xG per match
#23/24
Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.16
#2 West Ham United 2.11
#3 Cardiff City 1.92
#4 Southampton 1.81
#5 Millwall 1.75
#6 Wolverhampton 1.72
#7 Birmingham City 1.69
#8 Queens Park Rangers 1.65
#9 Swansea City 1.49
#10 Norwich City 1.48
#11 Bolton Wanderers 1.36
#12 West Bromwich Albion 1.35
#13 Burnley 1.32
#14 Portsmouth 1.31
#15 Lincoln City 1.30
#16 Preston North End 1.28
#17 Bristol City 1.27
#18 Sheffield United 1.18
#19 Wrexham 1.17
#20 Watford 1.05
#21 Blackburn Rovers 1.03
#22 Charlton Athletic 0.99
#23 Derby County 0.97
#24 Stoke City 0.88
League avg
1.43
Total
11.64 12 matches
Defence
1.72 xGA per match
#21/24
Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Wolverhampton 0.92
#2 Middlesbrough 1.02
#3 Queens Park Rangers 1.12
#4 Portsmouth 1.13
#5 Wrexham 1.21
#6 West Ham United 1.21
#7 Bristol City 1.29
#8 Swansea City 1.32
#9 Millwall 1.32
#10 Southampton 1.33
#11 Birmingham City 1.33
#12 Lincoln City 1.45
#13 Sheffield United 1.46
#14 West Bromwich Albion 1.47
#15 Preston North End 1.51
#16 Norwich City 1.53
#17 Cardiff City 1.57
#18 Charlton Athletic 1.58
#19 Stoke City 1.63
#20 Burnley 1.65
#21 Derby County 1.72
#22 Blackburn Rovers 1.72
#23 Watford 1.88
#24 Bolton Wanderers 1.90
League avg
1.43
Total
20.59 12 matches
xG difference
-0.75 xGD per match
#22/24
xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Middlesbrough +1.15
#2 West Ham United +0.90
#3 Wolverhampton +0.81
#4 Queens Park Rangers +0.53
#5 Southampton +0.48
#6 Millwall +0.43
#7 Birmingham City +0.37
#8 Cardiff City +0.35
#9 Portsmouth +0.18
#10 Swansea City +0.17
#11 Bristol City -0.02
#12 Wrexham -0.04
#13 Norwich City -0.05
#14 West Bromwich Albion -0.12
#15 Lincoln City -0.15
#16 Preston North End -0.23
#17 Sheffield United -0.28
#18 Burnley -0.33
#19 Bolton Wanderers -0.55
#20 Charlton Athletic -0.60
#21 Blackburn Rovers -0.69
#22 Derby County -0.75
#23 Stoke City -0.75
#24 Watford -0.83
League avg
0.00
Total
-8.95 12 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.02 xPts per match
#20/24
Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Middlesbrough 2.10
#2 Wolverhampton 1.97
#3 West Ham United 1.84
#4 Queens Park Rangers 1.72
#5 Southampton 1.70
#6 Birmingham City 1.64
#7 Millwall 1.63
#8 Cardiff City 1.58
#9 Portsmouth 1.51
#10 Swansea City 1.50
#11 Bristol City 1.44
#12 Wrexham 1.41
#13 Lincoln City 1.35
#14 Norwich City 1.33
#15 West Bromwich Albion 1.27
#16 Preston North End 1.19
#17 Sheffield United 1.17
#18 Burnley 1.11
#19 Bolton Wanderers 1.06
#20 Derby County 1.02
#21 Charlton Athletic 0.97
#22 Stoke City 0.94
#23 Blackburn Rovers 0.92
#24 Watford 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
12.29 vs 7 actual pts

What the xG says

Derby County's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Championship. They rank #22 for xG difference at -0.75 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 10 goals are 1.64 below 11.64 xG, while 7 points are 5.29 below 12.29 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.81 xG from penalties
10 11.64 -1.64 scored 1.64 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
21 20.59 +0.41 conceded 0.41 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
7 12.29 -5.29 5.29 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Derby County are 1.64 goals below their xG after 12 matches.

Goals
10
xG
11.64
Gap
-1.64
Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Tue 01/09 Sat 05/09 Wed 09/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 Sat 10/10 Wed 14/10 Sat 17/10 Sat 24/10 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.00 +0.38 -0.32 +1.13 +1.02 -0.25 -0.36 -1.11 -0.71 -0.56 -1.55 -1.64 +0.00 +0.38 -0.70 +1.45 -0.11 -1.27 -0.11 -0.75 +0.40 +0.15 -0.99 -0.09 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Derby County: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 15/08 Charlton Athletic 1 1.00 +0.00 +0.00
Sat 22/08 Cardiff City 2 1.62 +0.38 +0.38
Sat 29/08 Swansea City 0 0.70 -0.70 -0.32
Tue 01/09 Portsmouth 2 0.55 +1.45 +1.13
Sat 05/09 West Ham United 0 0.11 -0.11 +1.02
Wed 09/09 West Bromwich Albion 0 1.27 -1.27 -0.25
Sat 12/09 Birmingham City 1 1.11 -0.11 -0.36
Sat 19/09 Burnley 1 1.75 -0.75 -1.11
Sat 10/10 Wrexham 1 0.60 +0.40 -0.71
Wed 14/10 Queens Park Rangers 1 0.85 +0.15 -0.56
Sat 17/10 Stoke City 0 0.99 -0.99 -1.55
Sat 24/10 Sheffield United 1 1.09 -0.09 -1.64

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Derby County xG trend

Current form -0.52 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 12 matches. The worst was against West Ham United on Sat 05/09 (-3.36).

npxG · last 6
0.96
npxGA · last 6
1.48
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.06 Sat 15/08 -0.51 Sat 22/08 -2.85 Sat 29/08 -0.29 Tue 01/09 -3.36 Sat 05/09 +0.81 Wed 09/09 -2.10 Sat 12/09 +0.74 Sat 19/09 -0.78 Sat 10/10 +0.12 Wed 14/10 +0.45 Sat 17/10 -1.54 Sat 24/10 -0.78 season avg
Derby County: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 15/08 Charlton Athletic 1.01 1.07 -0.06 -0.06
Sat 22/08 Cardiff City 1.62 2.13 -0.51 -0.29
Sat 29/08 Swansea City 0.59 3.44 -2.85 -1.14
Tue 01/09 Portsmouth 0.55 0.84 -0.29 -0.93
Sat 05/09 West Ham United 0.11 3.47 -3.36 -1.41
Wed 09/09 West Bromwich Albion 1.20 0.39 +0.81 -1.04
Sat 12/09 Birmingham City 1.02 3.12 -2.10 -1.19
Sat 19/09 Burnley 1.23 0.49 +0.74 -0.95
Sat 10/10 Wrexham 0.52 1.30 -0.78 -0.93
Wed 14/10 Queens Park Rangers 0.85 0.73 +0.12 -0.83
Sat 17/10 Stoke City 1.00 0.55 +0.45 -0.71
Sat 24/10 Sheffield United 1.13 2.67 -1.54 -0.78

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.90 npxG and 1.68 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 11 hardest of 24 in Championship
−0.01 xG vs league average
Over 12 league matches
Last 5
tied number 19 hardest of 24 in Championship
−0.11 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.01 xG vs league average · over 12 matches · tied number 11 hardest of 24

  1. Sheffield United Away −0.23
  2. Stoke City Home −0.42
  3. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.24
  4. Wrexham Home −0.02
  5. Burnley Away −0.13
  6. Birmingham City Home +0.18
  7. West Bromwich Albion Home −0.02
  8. West Ham United Away +0.49
  9. Portsmouth Away +0.09
  10. Swansea City Home +0.08
  11. Cardiff City Home +0.10
  12. Charlton Athletic Away −0.45

Last 5

−0.11 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 19 hardest of 24

  1. Sheffield United Away −0.23
  2. Stoke City Home −0.42
  3. Queens Park Rangers Away +0.24
  4. Wrexham Home −0.02
  5. Burnley Away −0.13

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Derby County shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Derby County take 12.6 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.07 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #15 in Championship for volume and #23 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 26% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.6 shots per match
#15/24
Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Middlesbrough 20.1
#2 West Ham United 17.3
#3 Cardiff City 17.1
#4 Wolverhampton 16.8
#5 Southampton 15.2
#6 Queens Park Rangers 14.8
#7 Portsmouth 14.6
#8 Norwich City 14.1
#9 Millwall 13.9
#10 Burnley 13.8
#11 Bolton Wanderers 13.7
#12 Bristol City 13.5
#13 Birmingham City 13.2
#14 Preston North End 12.7
#15 Derby County 12.6
=16 Lincoln City 12.3
=16 Wrexham 12.3
=18 Watford 12.3
=18 West Bromwich Albion 12.3
#20 Swansea City 11.8
#21 Blackburn Rovers 11.6
#22 Stoke City 11.3
#23 Sheffield United 10.7
#24 Charlton Athletic 10.0
League avg
13.7
Total
151 shots from 12 matches
Chance quality
0.07 npxG per shot
#23/24
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Swansea City 0.12
#2 Millwall 0.12
#3 Birmingham City 0.12
#4 Middlesbrough 0.11
#5 West Ham United 0.11
#6 Southampton 0.11
#7 Sheffield United 0.11
#8 Charlton Athletic 0.10
#9 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#10 Cardiff City 0.10
#11 West Bromwich Albion 0.10
#12 Preston North End 0.09
#13 Wolverhampton 0.09
#14 Wrexham 0.09
#15 Lincoln City 0.09
#16 Norwich City 0.09
#17 Bristol City 0.09
#18 Bolton Wanderers 0.09
#19 Burnley 0.08
#20 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#21 Portsmouth 0.08
#22 Watford 0.08
#23 Derby County 0.07
#24 Stoke City 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
10.83 npxG from 151 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.1 shots per match
#16/24
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Wolverhampton 10.3
=2 Portsmouth 10.9
=2 Swansea City 10.9
#4 Middlesbrough 11.1
#5 Queens Park Rangers 11.4
#6 West Ham United 11.8
#7 Bristol City 11.9
#8 Wrexham 12.0
=9 Birmingham City 12.1
=9 Norwich City 12.1
=9 West Bromwich Albion 12.1
#12 Millwall 13.0
#13 Bolton Wanderers 14.3
#14 Cardiff City 14.4
#15 Burnley 14.7
#16 Derby County 15.1
=17 Sheffield United 15.5
=17 Stoke City 15.5
#19 Lincoln City 15.7
#20 Southampton 15.8
#21 Preston North End 16.2
#22 Watford 16.6
#23 Charlton Athletic 17.0
#24 Blackburn Rovers 17.3
League avg
13.7
Total
181 shots allowed from 12 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#21/24
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Southampton 0.07
#2 Charlton Athletic 0.08
#3 Wolverhampton 0.08
#4 Blackburn Rovers 0.08
#5 Lincoln City 0.09
#6 Sheffield United 0.09
#7 Middlesbrough 0.09
#8 West Ham United 0.09
#9 Millwall 0.09
#10 Preston North End 0.09
#11 Stoke City 0.09
#12 Wrexham 0.09
#13 Bristol City 0.09
#14 Queens Park Rangers 0.10
#15 Portsmouth 0.10
#16 Cardiff City 0.10
#17 Burnley 0.10
#18 Birmingham City 0.10
#19 Swansea City 0.10
#20 Watford 0.10
#21 Derby County 0.11
#22 West Bromwich Albion 0.12
#23 Norwich City 0.12
#24 Bolton Wanderers 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
20.20 npxGA from 181 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 102 of 151 shots over 12 matches

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 120 of 181 shots allowed over 12 matches

Where the npxG comes from

74% open play · 26% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 2.8 of 10.8 npxG over 12 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

66% open play · 34% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 6.9 of 20.1 npxG allowed over 12 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Derby County home and away xG

Derby County per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 6 6
xG / match 1.05 0.89
xGA / match 1.76 1.67
xGD / match -0.71 -0.78
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.02 1.02

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Derby County match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.06
xGA / match
1.29
xGD / match
-0.24
Points
3 of 15
  1. Sat 24/10 Sheffield United A Weakest underlying xG 1.09 xGA 2.47 xGD -1.38
  2. Sat 17/10 Stoke City H xG 0.99 xGA 0.56 xGD +0.43
  3. Wed 14/10 Queens Park Rangers A xG 0.85 xGA 1.52 P xGD -0.67
  4. Sat 10/10 Wrexham H xG 0.60 xGA 1.46 xGD -0.86
  5. Sat 19/09 Burnley A Best underlying xG 1.75 P xGA 0.45 xGD +1.30

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Derby County in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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