Monday, 12/10/2026 at 18:00
8d 17h to kick-offAEK Larnaca – Omonia Aradippou
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- AEK Larnaca
- 47%
- Draw
- 28%
- Omonia Aradippou
- 25%
| AEK Larnaca | Draw | Omonia Aradippou | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.14 | 3.55 | 3.97 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
AEK Larnaca
- Model
- 46.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 70.3%
- Probability gap
- −23.7 pp
- Edge
- −40.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.14
- Market odds
- 1.29 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.25
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.0%
- Probability gap
- +9.1 pp
- Edge
- +33.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.55
- Market odds
- 4.75 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
-
Omonia Aradippou
- Model
- 25.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 10.6%
- Probability gap
- +14.6 pp
- Edge
- +114.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.97
- Market odds
- 8.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.16
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
Outcomes with value
Omonia Aradippou to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Omonia Aradippou to win
Model 25.2% vs. bookmaker 10.6%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans AEK Larnaca
47% AEK Larnaca to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 11th
- AEK Larnaca attack v Omonia Aradippou defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 6th
- AEK Larnaca defence v Omonia Aradippou attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.11 vs -0.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.68 – 1.23
- AEK Larnaca v Omonia Aradippou
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Aradippou |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.93 · 3rd from 4 matches | 1.61 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.56 · 10th from 4 matches | 1.96 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.37 · 5th from 4 matches | -0.36 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.53 · 6th from 4 matches | 1.16 · 9th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.11 | -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- AEK Larnaca clean sheet
- 26%
- AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 7.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AEK Larnaca sample
- 20 matches
- Omonia Aradippou sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AEK Larnaca
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Omonia Aradippou
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.