Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 18:00
34d 17h to kick-offPafos FC – ALS Omonia
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Pafos FC
- 62%
- Draw
- 23%
- ALS Omonia
- 15%
| Pafos FC | Draw | ALS Omonia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.62 | 4.29 | 6.70 |
- Total goals
- 3.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Pafos FC
62% Pafos FC to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 13th
- Pafos FC attack v ALS Omonia defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 8th
- Pafos FC defence v ALS Omonia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.41 vs -0.63
- xGD per match, last 3
- Projected goals
- 2.11 – 1.04
- Pafos FC v ALS Omonia
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 3 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Pafos FC | ALS Omonia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.52 · 7th from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 9th from 4 matches | 2.15 · 13th from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.42 · 4th from 4 matches | -0.63 · 12th from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.65 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.01 · 12th from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.42 | -0.63 from 3 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Pafos FC clean sheet
- 33%
- Pafos FC 2+ goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 1:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 9.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Pafos FC sample
- 20 matches
- ALS Omonia sample
- 3 matches
- Home xG sample · Pafos FC
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · ALS Omonia
- 1 match
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- ALS Omonia has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.