Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 14:00
20d 12h to kick-offAC Sparta Praha – 1. FC Slovácko
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AC Sparta Praha
- 60%
- Draw
- 26%
- 1. FC Slovácko
- 14%
| AC Sparta Praha | Draw | 1. FC Slovácko | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.67 | 3.85 | 7.09 |
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AC Sparta Praha
60% AC Sparta Praha to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 11th
- AC Sparta Praha attack v 1. FC Slovácko defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 15th
- AC Sparta Praha defence v 1. FC Slovácko attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.66 vs -0.82
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.81 – 0.84
- AC Sparta Praha v 1. FC Slovácko
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AC Sparta Praha | 1. FC Slovácko |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.66 · 2nd | 0.92 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.25 · 8th | 1.88 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.41 · 3rd | -0.96 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.68 · 3rd | 0.88 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.66 | -0.82 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- AC Sparta Praha clean sheet
- 40%
- AC Sparta Praha 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 2:0
- 11.8%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AC Sparta Praha sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FC Slovácko sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AC Sparta Praha
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FC Slovácko
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.