Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 14:00
20d 12h to kick-offFC Slovan Liberec – Baník Ostrava
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Slovan Liberec
- 58%
- Draw
- 26%
- Baník Ostrava
- 16%
| FC Slovan Liberec | Draw | Baník Ostrava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.73 | 3.82 | 6.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Slovan Liberec
58% FC Slovan Liberec to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 15th
- FC Slovan Liberec attack v Baník Ostrava defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 10th
- FC Slovan Liberec defence v Baník Ostrava attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.59 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.84 – 0.95
- FC Slovan Liberec v Baník Ostrava
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Slovan Liberec | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.66 · 3rd | 1.34 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.86 · 1st | 1.89 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.80 · 2nd | -0.55 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.90 · 2nd | 1.02 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.59 | -0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- FC Slovan Liberec clean sheet
- 36%
- FC Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 2:1
- 11.8%
- 2:0
- 10.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Slovan Liberec sample
- 20 matches
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Slovan Liberec
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Baník Ostrava
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.