Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
5d 0h to kick-offViktoria Plzeň – Mladá Boleslav
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Viktoria Plzeň
- 64%
- Draw
- 23%
- Mladá Boleslav
- 13%
| Viktoria Plzeň | Draw | Mladá Boleslav | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.57 | 4.32 | 7.66 |
- Total goals
- 3.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Viktoria Plzeň
- Model
- 63.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 63.9%
- Probability gap
- −0.1 pp
- Edge
- −10.7%
- Fair odds
- 1.57
- Market odds
- 1.40 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 23.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.9%
- Probability gap
- +3.3 pp
- Edge
- +4.2%
- Fair odds
- 4.32
- Market odds
- 4.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.54
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
-
Mladá Boleslav
- Model
- 13.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.3%
- Probability gap
- −3.2 pp
- Edge
- −28.2%
- Fair odds
- 7.66
- Market odds
- 5.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 8.05
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
Outcomes with value
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Viktoria Plzeň
64% Viktoria Plzeň to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 16th
- Viktoria Plzeň attack v Mladá Boleslav defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 7th
- Viktoria Plzeň defence v Mladá Boleslav attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.53 vs -0.70
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.08 – 0.93
- Viktoria Plzeň v Mladá Boleslav
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Viktoria Plzeň | Mladá Boleslav |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.43 · 5th | (better) 1.45 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.10 · 5th | 2.06 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.32 · 4th | -0.62 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.61 · 4th | 1.03 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.53 | -0.70 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet
- 36%
- Viktoria Plzeň 2+ goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 1:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 10.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Viktoria Plzeň sample
- 20 matches
- Mladá Boleslav sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Viktoria Plzeň
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Mladá Boleslav
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.