Raków Częstochowa 2:1 Motor Lublin: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Raków Częstochowa Home 1.02 xG · 15 shots

Motor Lublin Away 1.79 xG · 16 shots

21 The result went against the chances

Raków Częstochowa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Raków Częstochowa's attack: 1.02 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.59). Motor Lublin produced 1.79 xG against 1.36 projected (+0.43).

Goals

34' Kamil Lukoszek Motor Lublin · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
42' Patryk Makuch Raków Częstochowa · 0.03 xG chance 1–1
77' Patryk Makuch Raków Częstochowa · 0.26 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Raków Częstochowa: 42% What happened
Draw: 28%
Motor Lublin: 30%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Raków Częstochowa 1.61 1.02 -0.59

Motor Lublin 1.36 1.79 +0.43

Raków Częstochowa produced 0.59 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Raków Częstochowa Motor Lublin

Shots: 15; 16
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 10; 11
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.69; 1.32
Set-piece xG: 0.33; 0.43
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.79 for Motor Lublin.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.77 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Raków Częstochowa
Motor Lublin
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.30 xG created 2.44 xGA

L 1.46 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Płock
L 3.02 created, 1.52 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
L 0.85 created, 2.74 conceded against Cracovia
L 1.24 created, 4.44 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
L 0.84 created, 2.22 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
L 0.40 created, 2.84 conceded against Lech Poznań

Motor Lublin

1.50 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 2.01 created, 0.89 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
L 0.92 created, 2.35 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
W 2.92 created, 1.10 conceded against GKS Katowice
D 0.68 created, 0.88 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
L 1.01 created, 1.57 conceded against Piast Gliwice
L 1.48 created, 2.26 conceded against Legia Warszawa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Raków Częstochowa: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Raków Częstochowa against Motor Lublin before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Motor Lublin to win	3.60	+7.4%	Lost
Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal	2.10	+6.3%	Lost
Draw	3.70	+5.3%	Lost
Raków Częstochowa not to score	6.00	+5.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+2.3%	Won
Motor Lublin 2+ goals	2.50	+0.8%	Lost
Motor Lublin to score	1.30	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Raków Częstochowa	41.7%	49.7%	−7.9 pp	2.40
Draw	28.4%	24.8%	+3.6 pp	3.52
Motor Lublin	29.8%	25.5%	+4.3 pp	3.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Raków Częstochowa to score	82.5%	84.2%	−1.7 pp	1.21
Raków Częstochowa not to score	17.5%	15.8%	+1.7 pp	5.70
Motor Lublin to score	77.0%	72.3%	+4.7 pp	1.30
Motor Lublin not to score	23.0%	27.7%	−4.7 pp	4.35
Both teams to score	65.1%	58.9%	+6.2 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	34.9%	41.1%	−6.2 pp	2.86
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals	49.4%	55.7%	−6.4 pp	2.02
Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal	50.6%	44.3%	+6.4 pp	1.98
Motor Lublin 2+ goals	40.3%	37.5%	+2.8 pp	2.48
Motor Lublin at most 1 goal	59.7%	62.5%	−2.8 pp	1.68
Over 1.5 goals	83.5%	82.2%	+1.3 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.5%	17.8%	−1.3 pp	6.06
Over 2.5 goals	58.7%	61.5%	−2.8 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.3%	38.5%	+2.8 pp	2.42

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Raków Częstochowa sample: 20 matches
Motor Lublin sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.